JJ Aldrich at Jamey-Lyn Horth

MMA April 18, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Jamey-Lyn Horth

-0.5

Moderate whale volume ($5.7K) at 100% on home exceeds model pick'em in data-poor spot

Ω Bottom Line

Horth ML +3.1 EV on $5.7K moderate whale steam (100% conviction) in pick'em strawweight prelim

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Line: -0.5

56%

Moderate whale volume ($5.7K) at 100% on home exceeds model pick'em in data-poor spot

MONEYLINE

Jamey-Lyn Horth

57%

Whale consensus (moderate volume, 100% conviction) provides only quantifiable edge vs calibrated 50/50 fusion

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

52%

Strawweight prelims go distance 62% historically; model projects decision bias without finish data

Game Analysis

Model projects 63% Horth win (rising 7-1 vs Aldrich 14-9 skid) with +3% edge at -150 ML; minor $4.9K whales 100% home confirm directionally. Strawweights go distance 65% (over 2.5), but totals weak historically—pass. Spread -0.5 mirrors ML value; props model-generated off avgs (conf capped 60).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Over 38.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: high-volume striker averages 41 SOG vs wrestlers; matchup favors pace

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Over 3.5 blocks 57%

Model projection: strong TDD (75%+) projects 4+ blocks vs Horth wrestling attempts

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Model projection: veteran decision fighter; low finish rate (20%) in last 10

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Over 45.5 hits 56%

Model projection: consistent striking volume in 3-rounders

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Under 0.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: rare power; no recent KOs

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Model projection: grappling defense saves vs takedown attempts

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Under 0.5 steals 57%

Model projection: low reversal volume

PROP ALERT

JJ Aldrich JJ Aldrich

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Model projection: no power KO threat

PROP ALERT