Juventus at AC Milan

Serie A April 26, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

Juventus

None

61% model prob exceeds -145 breakeven (59.2%) by 1.8%; Juventus superior in recent H2H.

Ω Bottom Line

Juventus -145 ML (+2 EV, 61% vs 59% breakeven); Milan-Juve derbies avg 2.1 goals <2.5 line

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Juventus

60%

61% model prob exceeds -145 breakeven (59.2%) by 1.8%; Juventus superior in recent H2H.

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

57%

Milan-Juve derbies average 2.1 goals (N=22); defensive matchup projects 2.3 total.

Game Analysis

Spread pricing anomaly offers +41 EV on Juventus -0.5 +135 vs ML -145 59% implied (our 60% proj). Top talents low conversion (Leao/Yildiz <0.4 gpg) backs under 2.5 in low-pace Serie A spot. Data voids cap conviction despite clear market inefficiency.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Rafael Leão AC Milan

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 60%

Season 2.32 SOT avg; high-usage winger vs Juve backline allowing 3.8 SOT/game.

PROP ALERT

Rafael Leão AC Milan

Under 0.5 goals 59%

0.36 gpg season avg; tough matchup vs Juve GK/Di Gregorio clean sheet tendency.

PROP ALERT

Mike Maignan AC Milan

Over 3.5 saves 58%

Strong season saves pace; derby vs Yildiz/Juve attack projects 4+ SOG faced.

PROP ALERT

Rafael Leão AC Milan

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Low assist volume (0.24/90min); focus on own shots in rivalry games.

PROP ALERT

Mike Maignan AC Milan

Under 4.0 saves 56%

Home venue boost but Juve low-shot efficiency in derbies.

PROP ALERT

Rafael Leão AC Milan

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Consistent minimum volume; model projects 2.0+ in high-pace derby.

PROP ALERT

Rafael Leão AC Milan

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Home spot usage up 15%; occasional derby scorer.

PROP ALERT

Mike Maignan AC Milan

Over 2.5 saves 59%

Baseline volume high; unvalidated roster projection.

PROP ALERT

Kenan Yildiz Juventus

Under 0.5 goals 60%

0.31 gpg avg; Milan defense limits forwards to 0.4 gpg.

PROP ALERT

Kenan Yildiz Juventus

Over 2.5 shots_on_target 59%

2.78 SOT/ game season; rising usage in away derbies.

PROP ALERT

Michele Di Gregorio Juventus

Over 3.0 saves 58%

Away vs Leão attack projects 4 SOG; solid season pace.

PROP ALERT

Adrien Rabiot Juventus

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Low volume midfielder (0.17 apg); defensive focus in derby.

PROP ALERT

Kenan Yildiz Juventus

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Primary goal threat, assists secondary (0.19 apg).

PROP ALERT

Manuel Locatelli Juventus

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Deep-lying playmaker, rare assists vs top defenses.

PROP ALERT

Michele Di Gregorio Juventus

Over 2.5 saves 60%

Model projects 3.2 saves in road derby.

PROP ALERT

Kenan Yildiz Juventus

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 59%

High shot volume continues away.

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