Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals
2.2
OMEGA spread vs market -2.2 + MC even margin (-0.0) = Royals cover +2.2 in 54% sims
Ω Bottom Line
Royals +153 ML +36.6 EV: Omega even vs -2.2 market shade, extreme whales + Yankees injuries -11%
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals
Line: 2.2
OMEGA spread vs market -2.2 + MC even margin (-0.0) = Royals cover +2.2 in 54% sims
MONEYLINE
Kansas City Royals
calibrated edge -11% favoring Royals + model 46.2% away win vs market 35.1%
TOTAL
under
Line: 8.5
MC under 72.8% at 24.0 total vs market 8.5; historical totals losing WR
Game Analysis
Omega ML juices Royals -188 (34.7% Yankees implied) but MC 50.8% Yankees win +0.6 margin edge in 10k sims; whales $171k extreme on Royals contradict (-4 conf). MC under 24.0 hits 75.7% (proj 20.4 total) w/HIGH edge conf but totals 48.7% historical WR caps at lean. Injuries hit Yankees harder (-11% vs -7.8%) but model sees regression value home.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Under 0.5 home_runs
58%
Model projection 0.3 HR; injuries cascade reduces opps
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Under 1.5 hits
57%
Season leader but even matchup vs Royals staff
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 1.5 total_bases
56%
Leading .327 avg; projection 1.7 bases
PROP ALERT
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals
Over 1.5 hits
60%
.278 avg leader; Yankees injuries boost usage
PROP ALERT
Michael Wacha
Kansas City Royals
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
0.43 ERA; Yankees weakened lineup
PROP ALERT
Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals
Over 1.5 total_bases
60%
High usage star vs injured Yankees