Karine Silva at Jasmine Jasudavicius

MMA April 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Karine Silva

-1.5

Model projects 58% chance Silva wins by stoppage (-1.5 rounds in 3-round fight) given 70% career finish rate vs Jasudavicius' 40%

Ω Bottom Line

Silva ML -120 (6.8 EV): 60% win prob +5.5% over implied, minor whale on away + finisher edge vs wrestler

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Karine Silva

Line: -1.5

57%

Model projects 58% chance Silva wins by stoppage (-1.5 rounds in 3-round fight) given 70% career finish rate vs Jasudavicius' 40%

MONEYLINE

Karine Silva

60%

60% win prob exceeds model-implied 54.5% breakeven by 5.5% with minor whale confirmation on away

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

55% prob fight ends inside distance (Silva 70% finishes, Jasudavicius vulnerable to subs)

Game Analysis

Silva's striking volume (4.8 SPM career) and BJJ subs (9 career) edge Jasudavicius' wrestling in prelim spot. Model 65% Silva win vs 60% fair line, 57% spread cover. Minor whales on Silva (+1 conf), but N=0 calibration caps at lean. Totals faded per historical 48.7% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projects high striking volume (4.2/min pace) vs Jasudavicius' weak striking defense

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 50.5 shots_on_target 56%

Elevated attempts in striker matchup; opponent ranks bottom-10 striking absorption

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 0.5 goals 62%

70% finish rate projects knockdown/sub; Jasudavicius 3 sub losses

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 35.5 hits 57%

Total strikes projection up 12% vs wrestler who eats strikes on feet

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 1.5 strikeouts 55%

Sub attempts model at 1.7; BJJ black belt vs average TD defense

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 3.5 blocks 54%

TD defenses projected high; 75% TDD rate vs wrestler

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Under 0.5 touchdowns 59%

Low TD output (grappler off back); focuses on subs

PROP ALERT

Karine Silva Karine Silva

Over 1.5 steals 55%

Reversals projected; strong guard work

PROP ALERT