LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC

MLS May 14, 2026 12:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

LAFC

-0.5

Posterior 59.1% LAFC win covers -0.5 vs +130 implied 43.5% (identical to ML win, superior price)

Ω Bottom Line

LAFC -0.5 +130 36 EV (59% posterior vs 43% implied); over 2.5 24 EV model 7.5 total

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

LAFC

Line: -0.5

59%

Posterior 59.1% LAFC win covers -0.5 vs +130 implied 43.5% (identical to ML win, superior price)

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

62%

Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs 50% implied; Omega/MC total 7.5 (exp goals 3.8-apiece)

Game Analysis

Omega -142 LAFC but Bayesian fuses to 47.4% St. Louis win (+6.1pp vs implied 41.3%, +14.7 EV) with Dixon-Coles 40.6% home/18.7% draw. Extreme whales ($505k institutional, 98% home) contradict model away lean for contrarian spot. MC 65.7% under 7.5 (high conf, +25 EV) on 3.2-3.4 proj vs 3.8-3.8 omega. Pick'em spread neg EV both sides.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Marcel Hartel St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection 0.3 goals; low usage vs LAFC defense (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Roman Bürki St. Louis CITY SC

Over 3.5 saves 64%

Projection 3.8 saves; LAFC pace projects high shots (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Marcel Hartel St. Louis CITY SC

Over 0.5 assists 57%

Home form boost, projection 0.6 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Eduard Löwen St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Limited scoring threat, projection 0.2 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Christopher Durkin St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Defensive mid role caps, projection 0.3 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tomas Ostrak St. Louis CITY SC

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Aggressive shooter projection 1.7 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jaziel Orozco St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.0 goals 65%

Sub role, zero projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Timo Baumgartl St. Louis CITY SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

CB low volume projection 0.3 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Hugo Lloris LAFC

Over 3.5 saves 65%

Model projects 4.0 saves vs St. Louis attack (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Timothy Tillman LAFC

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Recent form, projection 0.6 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Stephen Eustáquio LAFC

Under 1.0 assists 60%

DM role limits, projection 0.6 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mark Delgado LAFC

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Backup usage, projection 0.2 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Long LAFC

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Home underdog spot usage up, projection 0.6 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Eddie Segura LAFC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low shots projection 0.2 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ryan Hollingshead LAFC

Over 0.5 assists 54%

LB overlapping runs projection 0.6 (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Nkosi Tafari LAFC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Depth CB projection 0.3 (model-generated)

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