Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Ω
DDN SI PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Raiders
1.5
OMEGA line is -0.5 (home) vs market -1.5: a full point of swing on a near-pickem, and away form (24.9 EWMA pts) exceeds home form (20.5) despite the Raiders 2-1 road record.
Ω Bottom Line
Raiders +1.5 with OMEGA line showing +1.0 model edge, and the over 46.5 where our 50.0-51.2 total projection towers 3.5+ over the posted number.
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
Las Vegas Raiders
Line: 1.5
OMEGA line is -0.5 (home) vs market -1.5: a full point of swing on a near-pickem, and away form (24.9 EWMA pts) exceeds home form (20.5) despite the Raiders 2-1 road record.
TOTAL
over
Line: 46.5
OMEGA total and decomposed ratings 51.2 both sit 3.5-4.7 points above the market's 46.5; momentum data shows combined recent scoring of 45.4 alone with no defense adjustment yet.
Game Analysis
OMEGA's scoring model/team strength blend makes this -0.5 with a 50.0 total while the market posts -1.5 and 45.5 — the total gap (4.5 pts) is the only real quantitative disagreement and the decomposed model (51.2) backs it up. The spread side is a 1-point nudge to the Raiders +1.5 on better recent form (24.9 EWMA vs 20.5) and road splits. Nothing here clears the validated-edge bar: displayed sport, 0.5u caps, no player props given unconfirmed 2025-26 roster certainty.