Levante at Celta Vigo
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
MONEYLINE
Celta Vigo
None
calibrated exactly matches de-vigged market home win prob at 54.5%
Ω Bottom Line
No Bayesian edge at 54.5% Celta ML (-120), vig kills value; poor data caps at lean/pass (-0.1 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Celta Vigo
calibrated exactly matches de-vigged market home win prob at 54.5%
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion shows 55.6% home win posterior matching devigged market prior for 0% edge; away ML +340 massively +EV (95 per $100) from vig asymmetry but 44% prob too low for action. No spread/total posteriors or situational edges with poor data (missing Poisson/ELO/MC). Moneylines profitable in sharp lean tier historically.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season avg 14 goals/32 matches (0.44/game); low usage striker vs solid Levante defense (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Primary striker, consistent SOT volume in home games (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Williot Swedberg
Celta Vigo
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
High usage winger, 5 assists/26 games indicate involvement (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Andrei Radu
Celta Vigo
Over 2.5 saves
59%
Expected shots vs Levante attack, 100 saves season total (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Marcos Alonso
Celta Vigo
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Veteran fullback contributes from set pieces (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Iván Romero
Celta Vigo
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
57 shots season but low conversion, tough matchup (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Williot Swedberg
Celta Vigo
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Assist specialist, limited goals (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Andrei Radu
Celta Vigo
Under 3.0 saves
55%
Low total projected 2.5 goals/game (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Carlos Espí
Levante
Under 0.5 goals
59%
9 goals/22 matches (0.41 avg); away underdog limits chances (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Carlos Espí
Levante
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Road game vs home favorite suppresses volume (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Pablo Martínez
Levante
Under 0.5 assists
56%
4 assists/24 games, low creator role (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Mathew Ryan
Levante
Over 3.0 saves
60%
112 saves season, facing home favorite attack (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Iván Romero
Levante
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
57 shots season avg ~1.0 SOT (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Adrián de la Fuente
Levante
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
Defensive role limits shots (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Pablo Martínez
Levante
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Midfield, low volume (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Mathew Ryan
Levante
Over 2.5 saves
59%
Celta attack projects moderate shots (model projection)