Liverpool at Manchester United

EPL May 03, 2026 02:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Manchester United

-0.5

Posterior 43.5% home win aligns de-vigged market, +115 spread offers better pricing than ML

Ω Bottom Line

Efficient market 43.5% ManU de-vigged (our posterior match), +130 ML/+115 -0.5 dog pricing slight vig value; minor whales ignored

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Manchester United

Line: -0.5

55%

Posterior 43.5% home win aligns de-vigged market, +115 spread offers better pricing than ML

MONEYLINE

Manchester United

55%

De-vigged posterior exactly 43.5% matches breakeven for +130, neutral EV on dog side

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

50%

EPL rivalry historically low-scoring (avg ~2.4 goals H2H last 10), 3.5 total high

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Man Utd win at 43.5%, matching +130 raw implied for breakeven EV in data-poor spot. Minor $4K whale on Liverpool (low signal) and Kalshi 57% away ignored vs model anchor. Rivalry projects under 3.5 (hist 58% N>50) but no total posterior; props capped at 60 max unvalidated rosters.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bruno Fernandes Manchester United

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.3 goals vs line; low rivalry conversion rate

PROP ALERT

Bruno Fernandes Manchester United

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High usage (19 assists/31 games), projects 1.7 SOT in big match

PROP ALERT

Rasmus Hojlund Manchester United

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Struggles vs top defenses like Liv (proj 0.4 goals)

PROP ALERT

Marcus Rashford Manchester United

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Home bias boosts volume, proj 1.4 SOT

PROP ALERT

Andre Onana Manchester United

Over 3.0 saves 59%

Liverpool attack forces 3.5+ saves avg vs top GKs

PROP ALERT

Kobbie Mainoo Manchester United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfielder low volume proj 0.2 SOT

PROP ALERT

Casemiro Manchester United

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defensive role, minimal shots proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Garnacho Manchester United

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Inconsistent finisher vs elite CBs proj under

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Salah Liverpool

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Season leader, rivalry history 0.8 proj goals vs Utd

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Salah Liverpool

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 58%

High volume attacker, proj 2.4 SOT away

PROP ALERT

Cody Gakpo Liverpool

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Rotation risk in rivalry, proj 0.3 goals

PROP ALERT

Darwin Nunez Liverpool

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Chaotic style boosts SOT vs Utd proj 1.8

PROP ALERT

Alisson Becker Liverpool

Under 2.5 saves 55%

Utd low xG creation proj 2.1 saves

PROP ALERT

Virgil van Dijk Liverpool

Under 0.5 goals 60%

CB zero goals threat proj 0.0

PROP ALERT

Luis Diaz Liverpool

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Secondary option proj under vs Utd backline

PROP ALERT

Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

RB low volume proj 0.3 SOT

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