Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees

MLB April 13, 2026 11:05 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Los Angeles Angels

1.5

Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYY -1.5 -181 (implied 64% cover), MC away cover 47.1%

Ω Bottom Line

Angels +149 ML (49% model vs 40% breakeven) + +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread, NYY injuries -11%

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Los Angeles Angels

Line: 1.5

64%

Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYY -1.5 -181 (implied 64% cover), MC away cover 47.1%

MONEYLINE

Los Angeles Angels

62%

Bayesian posterior 51% NYY win vs 64.4% implied, -7.5% edge favoring away ML

TOTAL

over

Line: 9.0

55%

Omega total 24.0 and MC projected 24.9 vs market 9.0, over 51% at inflated line

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion upgrades Yankees win prob to 52.1% vs omega 37.4% ML (+168), driving +39 EV amid VERY_LOW model agreement (ELO > scoring). Moderate whales ($6.8k, 78% conf) confirm home despite -11% Yankee injury hit vs Angels -7.8%; MC tighter at 45% home win, no spread edge. Outlier 24 total from 12-12 expected scores sees MC 50.8% over (norm ~55%).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Season 4 HR early, favorable matchup projection model-generated

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

High-usage star, Angels SP injury cascade boosts opps model proj

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 57%

.356 BA hot streak, model proj vs weak Angels arms

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

12 RBI leader, lineup protection model-generated

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

1.93 ERA leader, Angels high K% matchup model proj

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 0.5 saves 55%

30 saves but bullpen injuries reduce close games model

PROP ALERT

Jo Adell Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.297 BA, Yankee injuries open at-bats model proj

PROP ALERT

Zach Neto Los Angeles Angels

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

5 HR but cold vs LHP projection model-generated

PROP ALERT

Jorge Soler Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

16 RBI leader, cleanup spot usage boost

PROP ALERT

Jose Soriano Los Angeles Angels

Over 4.5 strikeouts 60%

0.33 ERA elite, Yankees high chase model proj

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 56%

Consistent contact vs RHP model-generated

PROP ALERT

Zach Neto Los Angeles Angels

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Power threat, Yankee SP injuries favor model proj

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Hot BA regression risk model-generated

PROP ALERT

Jo Adell Los Angeles Angels

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Speed/power combo vs tired bullpen

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Under 6.5 strikeouts 55%

Angels low K% lineup adjustment model

PROP ALERT

Jorge Soler Los Angeles Angels

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Veteran vs Yankee injuries model proj

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