Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays

MLB April 07, 2026 11:07 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Toronto Blue Jays

1.63

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.63 creates 1.63pt value on Jays; MC shows 46.5% home cover rate

Ω Bottom Line

Jays +135 value as omega/MC project 54% win prob vs 62% implied; 1.63pt spread edge on even matchup

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Toronto Blue Jays

Line: 1.63

59%

Omega spread 0.0 vs market -1.63 creates 1.63pt value on Jays; MC shows 46.5% home cover rate

MONEYLINE

Toronto Blue Jays

56%

Market -163 implies 62% Dodgers win prob but MC/omega at 46-54% range; breakeven 42.6% vs our 54%

Game Analysis

Dead even matchup per MC sims (46.3-45.8 home win) and 12-12 Poisson despite ELO's -5.1 Dodger lean; Mookie Betts IL hurts LA offense while Toronto missing Kirk/Berrios. Model ML has Jays +255 offering 2.1 EV (46% prob vs 28% breakeven). Props lean toward aces Gausman/Glasnow limiting damage.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Team leader 12 hits; favorable early matchup vs Gausman

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

3 HR leader but Gausman 0.75 ERA suppresses power

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

.474 BA leader projects strong early output

PROP ALERT

Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

3.00 ERA with K upside vs Jays order

PROP ALERT

Ernie Clement Toronto Blue Jays

Over 0.5 hits 55%

.293 BA leader gets looks vs Glasnow

PROP ALERT

George Springer Toronto Blue Jays

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

2 HR but Glasnow limits RHB power

PROP ALERT

Kevin Gausman Toronto Blue Jays

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

0.75 ERA, 21K leader vs Dodgers without Betts

PROP ALERT

Kevin Gausman Toronto Blue Jays

Under 4.5 hits 57%

Dominant early form limits Dodgers bats

PROP ALERT

Andres Gimenez Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

8 total bases leader in leadoff role

PROP ALERT

Max Scherzer Toronto Blue Jays

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

1 save but Day-To-Day; K prop if starts

PROP ALERT

Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 5.0 hits 58%

3.00 ERA projects Jays under hits allowed

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

3 RBI leader in cleanup vs Gausman

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