Mallorca at Girona
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Girona
-0.5
LaLiga home teams cover -0.5 in 51% of matches; posterior 48.8% close to de-vigged implied despite poor records
Ω Bottom Line
Coinflip LaLiga matchup, 48.8% home posterior vs market aligns—lean Girona -0.5 (-105) +0.8 EV on venue
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Girona
Line: -0.5
LaLiga home teams cover -0.5 in 51% of matches; posterior 48.8% close to de-vigged implied despite poor records
MONEYLINE
Girona
Home win posterior 48.8% aligns with market de-vig prior; Girona 9-11-13 record but venue edge
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Both teams ~1.0 gpg avg (Girona 9W/33G, Mallorca 9W); totals historically losing WR 50.6% in leans
Game Analysis
Bayesian posteriors match de-vigged market (home win 48.8%, away 51.2%) with 0pp edge; no injuries, rest, or travel flags. Stable lines/no sharp signals in poor data environment (36% signals). Marginal vig value on +265 underdog but cap conviction low.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Vladyslav Vanat
Girona
Under 0.5 goals
58%
Model projects 0.3 goals (season 9/27=0.33 gpg); low usage vs Mallorca defense
PROP ALERT
Viktor Tsygankov
Girona
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model projects 1.8 SOT; winger role in home attack
PROP ALERT
Viktor Tsygankov
Girona
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Season 4/27=0.15 apg; low creator volume projected 0.2
PROP ALERT
Paulo Gazzaniga
Girona
Over 3.0 saves
56%
Model projects 3.4 saves; Mallorca avg 12 SOG/game
PROP ALERT
Daley Blind
Girona
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Defender minimal shots; model 0.2 projected
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Model projects 0.7 goals (season 21/32=0.66 gpg); high usage striker
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Model projects 1.9 SOT; target man role