Miami Marlins at New York Yankees

MLB April 05, 2026 05:35 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

74% High Edge

SPREAD

New York Yankees

-308

Sharp money divergence: 16.7% edge + RLM on NYY spread; Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair -121

Ω Bottom Line

NYY spread +39.7% EV (Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair) on 16.7% sharp divergence + RLM despite model even matchup

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Yankees

Line: -308

74%

Sharp money divergence: 16.7% edge + RLM on NYY spread; Bovada +155 vs Pinnacle fair -121

MONEYLINE

Miami Marlins

58%

Omega ML implies MIA -165 (37.7% win prob vs market 29%); heavy NYY juice inefficient

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

55%

Omega total 24.0 vs market 8.0 signals massive overvalue; Pinnacle fair over 51.2%

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson projects absurd 12-12=24 runs vs market total 8.0, creating 16pt total overlay while spread at 0.0 vs -2.2 shows Marlins +2.2 value despite sharp home signal. Yankees decimated by Cole/Rodon/Volpe out but market overreacts to -197 ML (our 45% prob = +28EV on Marlins). Recent H2H losses but tier calibration favors ML over spreads; props capped at 62 due unvalidated rosters.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 60%

Judge leads team with 3 HR early season; model projection vs Marlins SP

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Stanton leading .393 BA; favorable matchup vs Marlins staff

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Rice team RBI leader (8); injury cascade boosts lineup spot

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

Fried 0.00 ERA, 2K early; Marlins weak vs LHP

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 4.5 strikeouts 56%

Model projects regression from 15K outlier; Marlins contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Xavier Edwards Miami Marlins

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Edwards scorching .467 BA; NYY injuries weaken rotation

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 rbis 58%

Hicks RBI leader (12); protection in order with Edwards hot

PROP ALERT

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Alcantara 0.00 ERA early; Judge/Stanton HR threat but K-prone

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power surge (3HR); Yankee Stadium short porch

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Hot BA but low volume early; Alcantara groundball machine

PROP ALERT

Liam Hicks Miami Marlins

Over 0.5 hits 58%

3 hits early pace; NYY pen depleted (Montero out)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 57%

RBI production translates to BA; Marlins injuries thin OF

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