Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers

MLB April 21, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Detroit Tigers

0.0

model sims project +0.5 home margin (49.9% cover rate at 0.0)

Ω Bottom Line

Tigers +168 ML +39 EV (52% our vs 37% model) on MC 50% win + extreme institutional whales home; MC 75% under 24

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Detroit Tigers

58%

model sims project +0.5 home margin (49.9% cover rate at 0.0)

MONEYLINE

Detroit Tigers

65%

Our 52% home win prob vs model-implied 37.3% (+14.7% edge) backed by model 49.9% and extreme whales

TOTAL

under

Line: 24.0

62%

model 74.8% under hit rate at 24.0 (proj 20.6 runs) with HIGH edge confidence

Game Analysis

Extreme whale steam ($109k institutional volume, 88% on Tigers) flips Bayesian/MC even matchup (50.3-50.6% home) vs omega away-favored line. Injuries ding Tigers more (-1.9% net) but volume-weighted signal dominates. MC crushes under inflated 24.0 total (74.6% hit rate, proj 20.5 runs) despite totals model weakness.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Colt Keith Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 hits 58%

.317 BA leader projects over vs est avg matchup (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

Season 4 HR low power projection (model)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Recent form supports modest production (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 60%

2.08 ERA leader, 33K pace strong vs Brewers lineup (model)

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Under 4.5 hits 56%

Elite pitcher limits hits (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Colt Keith Detroit Tigers

Under 2.5 total_bases 55%

Contact hitter, low power (model)

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 rbis 59%

Limited RBI opps projected (model)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 57%

SB leader with speed/contact (model proj)

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.5 hits 59%

.301 BA projects well (model)

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

5 HR season, low rate (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Garrett Mitchell Milwaukee Brewers

Over 0.5 hits 58%

17 SB speed/contact edge (model)

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

3.04 ERA supports K upside (model)

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 2.0 total_bases 57%

BA leader volume (model proj)

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Power but low opps (model)

PROP ALERT

Garrett Mitchell Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 steals 56%

17 SB but matchup suppresses (model)

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Under 5.5 hits 58%

Solid ERA limits contact (model proj)

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