Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
1.5
OMEGA spread vs implied heavy Tigers fav, model margin -0.0 (Brewers +1.5 covers 62% sims)
Ω Bottom Line
Even matchup per MC/Poisson (46% DET win) vs -226 juice, +53 EV MIL ML +184
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
Line: 1.5
OMEGA spread vs implied heavy Tigers fav, model margin -0.0 (Brewers +1.5 covers 62% sims)
MONEYLINE
Milwaukee Brewers
calibrated edge -9.1% away + model 46% away win vs 69% implied (overjuiced Tigers)
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.0
OMEGA total + MC proj 21.2 vs market 7.0 (over 98% prob but totals weak)
Game Analysis
Market overjuices Tigers to -226 ML despite omega even spread 0.0, MC 46.7% Brewers win prob (proj 10.6-10.6), and Bayesian -9.1% home edge. Injuries hit DET harder (-10.6% vs -7.8%), recent form near even (5.2 vs 5.1). Whale extreme home $755k but contradicts model/sharp ML away; cap at lean due to no pitchers/degraded data.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
60%
Model proj 7.2 K vs Brewers (mid offense), recent form leader 33 K
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Season HR leader, model proj 1.3 hits in even matchup
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 1.5 total_bases
57%
Model proj 1.2 TB, injury cascade risk
PROP ALERT
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
56%
.322 BA leader, proj 1.0 hit vs Brewers SP unknown
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
5 HR season but model proj 0.2 vs unknown SP
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Under 6.5 strikeouts
55%
Variance high, Brewers contact hitters
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 steals
56%
18 SB leader but model proj 0.2 in low pace
PROP ALERT
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 1.0 hits
59%
.305 BA leader, model proj 1.4 vs Tigers
PROP ALERT
Chad Patrick
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 4.5 strikeouts
56%
2.35 ERA leader, proj 5.1 K vs Tigers