Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros

This is a low-data play by necessity — no starting pitchers announced, no Pinnacle line, no Monte Carlo. What we do have: the Brewers at +118 on Kambi, a stale retail price that the market hasn't touched, and a massive whale signal (31 profitable Polymarket wallets betting 82% on the Brewers with $320K volume). That's institutional-level money on the away side. Minute Maid Park plays neutral-to-homer-friendly, and both teams have comparable IL impact. The 52% win probability vs 49% market implied gives us +$7.10 EV per $100 on the moneyline — a real edge, just one with heavy data-quality caveats. The spread and total are secondary plays that carry more model uncertainty. If starting pitchers are announced and one side is clearly superior, re-evaluate immediately.