Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
-1.5
Market Consensus fair value implies 66% Brewers +1.5 cover, +52% EV on Marlins -1.5 at retail -115
Ω Bottom Line
Marlins -1.5 +52% EV vs Pinnacle fair + extreme $771k whales home, net injury edge +2.8%
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Miami Marlins
Line: -1.5
Market Consensus fair value implies 66% Brewers +1.5 cover, +52% EV on Marlins -1.5 at retail -115
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins
Extreme whale volume $771k (15 wallets, institutional tier) on home at 66% consensus
TOTAL
under
Line: 8.5
Market Consensus fair under 51.5%, totals historically losing (48.7% WR)
Game Analysis
Marlins +176 home dogs with +14.7% prob edge (our 51% vs implied 36%) fueled by extreme whale volume $742k (institutional tier) and net injury edge +2.8%. MC HIGH conf under 71.6% on inflated 24.0 total (proj 21 runs). Degraded data caps conf but ML value stands out vs -176 juice.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins
Over 1.0 hits
58%
Model projection .338 BA yields 1.3 hits vs avg matchup (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Liam Hicks
Miami Marlins
Over 1.5 total_bases
56%
18 RBI pace suggests power, projects 1.8 TB (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Sandy Alcantara
Miami Marlins
Over 5.5 strikeouts
59%
2.67 ERA + 22 IP projects 6.2 K vs Brewers (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Liam Hicks
Miami Marlins
Over 0.5 rbis
55%
18 RBI season pace, projects 0.7 RBI (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins
Under 0.5 steals
57%
Speed guy but low steal rate projects under (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Sandy Alcantara
Miami Marlins
Under 2.5 earned_runs
60%
2.67 ERA projects 1.8 ER (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Liam Hicks
Miami Marlins
Under 0.5 home_runs
56%
4 HR total, low HR rate projects under (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Xavier Edwards
Miami Marlins
Over 1.5 total_bases
55%
.338 BA projects 1.6 TB (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
.317 BA projects 1.2 hits vs Marlins (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Gary Sanchez
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 0.5 home_runs
57%
5 HR pace low vs Alcantara, projects under (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Chad Patrick
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 5.5 strikeouts
59%
0.95 ERA projects 6.1 K vs Marlins (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Jake Bauers
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 0.5 rbis
55%
13 RBI pace projects 0.6 RBI (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 1.5 total_bases
56%
.317 BA projects 1.7 TB (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Gary Sanchez
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 0.5 rbis
55%
Power but low RBI rate projects under (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Chad Patrick
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 2.0 earned_runs
60%
0.95 ERA projects 1.5 ER (omega_model)
PROP ALERT
Jake Bauers
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 0.5 hits
56%
Projects 0.8 hits vs Alcantara (omega_model)