Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Ω
OMEGA PICK
66%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
1.5
Market Consensus fair value 68.2% Brewers cover vs retail +300 pricing
Ω Bottom Line
Brewers +1.5 +173% EV (Pinnacle 68% fair); Over 8 +15.2pp model edge vs low market total
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
Line: 1.5
Market Consensus fair value 68.2% Brewers cover vs retail +300 pricing
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
calibrated 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp edge)
Game Analysis
Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Brewers -2.2 gives 56.3% posterior Cardinals +2.2 cover; total crushed at 8.5 with MC 19.8 projected and over posterior 65.2% despite no pitchers/weather. Sharp strong on away spread but +EV away cover per Pinnacle fair (38.3%) vs retail; whale extreme home volume contradicts sharp. Equal poor injuries, lean home spread + over with data limits.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.0 hits
60%
Model projection .308 avg projects 1.1 hits in neutral matchup
PROP ALERT
Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
Season leader .308 supports higher bases projection
PROP ALERT
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 rbis
57%
28 RBI pace projects usage in high-total spot
PROP ALERT
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
2.52 ERA correlates to K upside vs Brewers
PROP ALERT
Kyle Leahy
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 2.5 strikeouts
56%
Reliever profile limits volume in 27 IP
PROP ALERT
Gary Sanchez
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 0.5 home_runs
58%
5 HR pace low in projected high-total game
PROP ALERT
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 5.5 strikeouts
57%
2.84 ERA prospect K prop despite day-to-day
PROP ALERT
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 1.0 total_bases
56%
Leadoff .304 projects multi-base game
PROP ALERT
Alec Burleson
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 0.5 hits
57%
RBI producer projects hit in scoring spot