Minnesota United FC at Columbus Crew

MLS May 02, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota United FC

0.5

Omega independent line at even spread (0.0) vs market Columbus -0.5, providing 0.5pt edge to away cover

Ω Bottom Line

Minnesota +0.5 (omega even line) +94 EV ML edge at +310, over 2.5 +14.9pp (model total 7.5 vs 2.5)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota United FC

Line: 0.5

58%

Omega independent line at even spread (0.0) vs market Columbus -0.5, providing 0.5pt edge to away cover

MONEYLINE

Minnesota United FC

60%

calibrated 47.4% away win vs market prior 42.5% (+4.9pp edge at +310 payout)

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

62%

Per-bet posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge); OMEGA total and MC proj 6.5

Game Analysis

Omega line even spread and 7.5 total vs market -0.5/-2.5 shows clear edges to Minnesota +0.5 (0.5pt discrep) and over (5pt discrep). Bayesian fuses to +4.9pp away ML edge and +14.9pp over 2.5, backed by MC 3.3-3.2 proj and Dixon-Coles 6.4 goals exp despite LOW model agreement. No injuries/situational flags, cool weather minor under factor but model overwhelms.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Patrick Schulte Columbus Crew

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Model projection as starter in expected even matchup, avg exceeds line

PROP ALERT

Rudy Camacho Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

Defender low usage, projection well under line

PROP ALERT

Steven Moreira Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Fullback conservative role, avg below line

PROP ALERT

André Gomes Columbus Crew

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield creator, projection matches high pace model

PROP ALERT

Amar Sejdic Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Limited creator role, low projection

PROP ALERT

Malte Amundsen Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Defensive profile, minimal SOT

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Farsi Columbus Crew

Under 0.5 goals 64%

Wingback low scoring threat

PROP ALERT

Yevhen Cheberko Columbus Crew

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Occasional contributor in model

PROP ALERT

Drake Callender Minnesota United FC

Over 2.5 saves 59%

Expected starter vs even attack, avg supports over

PROP ALERT

Morris Duggan Minnesota United FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 63%

Defender minimal attacking involvement

PROP ALERT

James Rodríguez Minnesota United FC

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 61%

Key creator, high usage projection in model

PROP ALERT

Joaquín Pereyra Minnesota United FC

Over 0.5 assists 58%

Playmaker role boosted by pace model

PROP ALERT

Wil Trapp Minnesota United FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Defensive mid low SOT avg

PROP ALERT

Michael Boxall Minnesota United FC

Under 0.5 goals 65%

CB zero threat projection

PROP ALERT

Kyle Duncan Minnesota United FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

RB conservative

PROP ALERT

D.J. Taylor Minnesota United FC

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Occasional but avg under in projection

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