Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Ω
DDN SI PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Vikings
3.5
OMEGA scoring model+team strength projects Minnesota stronger than a -3.5 underdog line (home win prob 26.1%, edge 8.5 vs market), so +3.5 is a full point of buffer beyond the model line.
Ω Bottom Line
OMEGA model has the Vikings by 3 at a 26% home win prob vs Detroit -3.5 — Vikings +3.5 (58) on a 4.5-point model under total.
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
Minnesota Vikings
Line: 3.5
OMEGA scoring model+team strength projects Minnesota stronger than a -3.5 underdog line (home win prob 26.1%, edge 8.5 vs market), so +3.5 is a full point of buffer beyond the model line.
MONEYLINE
Minnesota Vikings
OMEGA model gives 26.1% home win probability, implying ~74% away, versus 40.8% implied on the +145 — the largest model-market gap in this game.
TOTAL
under
Line: 45.5
OMEGA total and decomposed-ratings predicted total 41.4 both sit 4-5 points under the 45.5 market number.
Game Analysis
Public Line has Lions -3, dead on the NFL's most-landed margin, while OMEGA's scoring model+team strength line says -8 (25.5-17.3) — an 11-point model-market divergence we heavily discount but still leaves value buying the home side at -120. Detroit's EWMA form (29.9 vs Minnesota's 21.4) and Vikings IR losses up front point the same way. The total corroborates with scoring model 43.0 vs market 46.5, but totals are our worst market (48.7% VR) so it stays a thin Lean. Sample size caveat: model confidence here is anchored on the independent line, not graded建筑工程 outcomes in this tier.