Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche

NHL May 06, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

-1.5

+27.9% EV on home puck vs Market Consensus fair value (41.2% home cover), 10.8% sharp divergence

Ω Bottom Line

COL puck -1.5 +27.9% EV (sharp 10.8% edge vs Pinnacle) + extreme $245k whales 96% home + MIN injury carnage net +9.5%

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Avalanche

Line: -1.5

65%

+27.9% EV on home puck vs Market Consensus fair value (41.2% home cover), 10.8% sharp divergence

MONEYLINE

Colorado Avalanche

62%

Posterior exactly matches implied 67.2%, whales extreme $245k 96% home conviction

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

58%

Sharp edge 2.9% under + RLM confirmation, cross-market defensive lean

Game Analysis

Wild's Brodin OUT (critical D) creates +9.5% net injury edge for Colorado at altitude (+20% home boost). Sharp divergence hits 11.1% on Avs -2 cover, 17.5% on over 4.8 with Pinnacle fair over 48%. Bayesian ML posterior flat at 64.2% but situational factors tilt home; data degraded caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Model projection, high usage vs injured MIN D, home ice boost

PROP ALERT

Nathan MacKinnon Colorado Avalanche

Over 1.5 hockey_points 58%

Model projection, leads team in points, favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Mikko Rantanen Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection, high shot volume, MIN D depleted

PROP ALERT

Cale Makar Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 hockey_points 59%

Model projection, PP threat, home advantage

PROP ALERT

Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche

Over 25.5 saves 56%

Model projection, expected shots vs MIN

PROP ALERT

Valeri Nichushkin Colorado Avalanche

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Model projection, net front usage up with injuries

PROP ALERT

Casey Mittelstadt Colorado Avalanche

Over 0.5 hockey_points 55%

Model projection, secondary scoring vs weak MIN blue line

PROP ALERT

Artturi Lehkonen Colorado Avalanche

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection, lower usage role

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Model projection, high volume despite injuries, road warrior

PROP ALERT

Kirill Kaprizov Minnesota Wild

Over 1.0 hockey_points 58%

Model projection, team leader, usage spike with Eriksson Ek out

PROP ALERT

Matt Boldy Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection, PP1 with injuries

PROP ALERT

Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild

Over 27.5 saves 59%

Model projection, high shots expected vs COL offense

PROP ALERT

Ryan Hartman Minnesota Wild

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 55%

Model projection, faceoff role increases chances

PROP ALERT

Joel Eriksson Ek Minnesota Wild

Under 0.5 hockey_points 55%

Model projection OUT injury, zero possible

PROP ALERT

Brock Faber Minnesota Wild

Over 0.5 hockey_points 56%

Model projection, top D usage up with Brodin out

PROP ALERT

Mats Zuccarello Minnesota Wild

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection, lower volume vs COL D

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