Nashville SC at New England Revolution
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Nashville SC
-0.5
Away win posterior 56.9% vs +130 breakeven 43.5%; better price than ML -140
Ω Bottom Line
Over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (64.9% posterior), omega 3.8-3.8 goals vs mkt 2.5; away spread +130 value at 57% prob
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Nashville SC
Line: -0.5
Away win posterior 56.9% vs +130 breakeven 43.5%; better price than ML -140
MONEYLINE
New England Revolution
Home posterior 43.1% vs market 35.7% (+7.4pp calibrated edge); omega ML home +130 fair
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); OMEGA total, expected 3.8-3.8
Game Analysis
Omega independent line even spread/ML and 7.5 total vs market Nashville -0.5/-140 and 2.5 total shows clear model edges. Bayesian fusion +7.4pp home ML, +14.9pp over 2.5; MC 46.3% Nashville win supports +EV away spread at +130 juice. Whales $99k strong on away and Kalshi 66% contradict home ML but confirm spread; totals reduced for historical underperformance. Degraded data caps all conf.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Matt Turner
New England Revolution
Over 3.5 saves
60%
Home GKs avg 3.7 saves; low wind/clear favors more shots allowed
PROP ALERT
Mamadou Fofana
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 goals
62%
Defender usage low; Nashville attack regressed per xG
PROP ALERT
Andrew Farrell
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
CB minimal attacking; matchup vs Mukhtar contained
PROP ALERT
Ilay Feingold
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Wingback low creation; Nashville strong vs crosses
PROP ALERT
Damario Mcintosh
New England Revolution
Under 0.0 goals
65%
Depth forward no goals; rest advantage none
PROP ALERT
Tanner Beason
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
61%
Defender low volume; model proj 0.3
PROP ALERT
Brayan Ceballos
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 assists
57%
Mid low key passes; Nashville press disrupts
PROP ALERT
William Sands
New England Revolution
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Sub usage; proj 0.3 vs Nashville D