Nashville SC at Philadelphia Union

MLS May 02, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Nashville SC

0.5

Posterior 58.6% Nash +0.5 cover (draw + away win) vs OMEGA spread

Ω Bottom Line

Nash 7-1-1 vs 1-2-7 PHI, +185 ML 67 EV (58.6% prob), over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (exp 7.6 total)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Nashville SC

Line: 0.5

59%

Posterior 58.6% Nash +0.5 cover (draw + away win) vs OMEGA spread

MONEYLINE

Nashville SC

59%

Nash 7-1-1 form vs PHI 1-2-7, posterior 58.6% away win vs +185 (35% breakeven)

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

65%

Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs omega/MC/Dixon totals 6.8-7.6 (edge +14.9pp)

Game Analysis

Nashville's 7-1-1 explosion vs PHI's dismal 1-2-7 slump, omega Poisson 3.8-3.8 crushes 2.5 total (64.9% over posterior). ML +185 offers 67 EV at 58.6% our prob, backed by $66k whales (74% conf) and Kalshi 60.5% away. Spread Nash +0.5 edges omega 0.0 but vig kills EV; degraded data caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Hany Mukhtar Nashville SC

Over 0.5 goals 62%

Season leader, high usage vs weak PHI defense, proj 0.6 goals

PROP ALERT

Hany Mukhtar Nashville SC

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

26 shots leader, PHI allows 4.2 SOT/game, proj 1.8

PROP ALERT

Bryan Acosta Nashville SC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Midfield creator, proj 0.8 in open game

PROP ALERT

Joe Willis Nashville SC

Under 2.5 saves 57%

Nash clean sheets recent, PHI low shots, proj 2.0

PROP ALERT

Maxwell Woledzi Nashville SC

Under 3.0 saves 55%

Backup GK low volume expected, proj 2.5

PROP ALERT

Jack Maher Nashville SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Defender low SOT, proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Reed Baker-Whiting Nashville SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Wingback defensive role, proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Daniel Lovitz Nashville SC

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 55%

Occasional threat, proj 0.4

PROP ALERT

Andre Blake Philadelphia Union

Over 3.5 saves 63%

Nash high xG attack, 23 saves leader, proj 4.0

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

3 assists leader, vet creator, proj 0.7 vs Nash D

PROP ALERT

Olivier Mbaizo Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

FB low attack, proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Nathan Harriel Philadelphia Union

Under 0.0 shots_on_target 56%

CB minimal, proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Indiana Vassilev Philadelphia Union

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Limited starts, proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Jesús Bueno Philadelphia Union

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

Mid usage up in poor form, proj 1.2

PROP ALERT

Geiner Martínez Philadelphia Union

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Proj 0.7 in high total spot

PROP ALERT

George Marks Philadelphia Union

Over 3.0 saves 61%

Backup faces Nash, proj 3.4

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