New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

NBA November 03, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω DDN SI PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Memphis Grizzlies

-3.5

Model team strength/scoring model projection puts Memphis at roughly a 4.5-point home edge with Yves Missi (Pelicans rim protection) out, but no market price exists to confirm the number.

Ω Bottom Line

Model-only read: Memphis -3.5 home lean vs a Pelicans team missing rim protector Yves Missi — no market odds to confirm, so LEAN units only

All DDN SI Picks

SPREAD

Memphis Grizzlies

Line: -3.5

55%

Model team strength/scoring model projection puts Memphis at roughly a 4.5-point home edge with Yves Missi (Pelicans rim protection) out, but no market price exists to confirm the number.

MONEYLINE

Memphis Grizzlies

57%

Model posterior gives Memphis a 57% home win probability; equivalent fair price is roughly -140, and Yves Missi being OUT compounds the Pelicans' interior disadvantage.

TOTAL

over

Line: 226.5

55%

scoring model scoring model projects 227 combined points; with Missi out the Pelicans lose their best rim protector, raising Memphis interior efficiency projections.

Game Analysis

Memphis projects a 130.4-111.7 win (86.4% ML, model agreement high with NegBin at 86.2%) against a New Orleans roster missing Murray, Poole, and Missi — that's 50%+ of the Pelicans' primary creation. The power play is the spread at +18.5-equivalent confidence, not the -636 fair moneyline; one ML loss erases five wins. Over 242 is supported by three independent scoring models (scoring model, NegBin, decomposed ratings all 242-245.4), but stays at LEAN given the totals track record.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Trey Murphy III New Orleans Pelicans

Over 22.5 points 62%

Model projects Murphy as New Orleans' clear No. 1 usage option at ~23 points; line set to that model projection (omega_model, no bookmaker comparison available).

PROP ALERT

Derik Queen New Orleans Pelicans

Over 8.0 rebounds 60%

With Yves Missi OUT, Queen's projected rebound share rises; model projection ~8.5 boards (omega_model).

PROP ALERT

Zach Edey Memphis Grizzlies

Over 8.5 rebounds 61%

Facing a Pelicans frontcourt missing Missi, Edey's projected glass share is ~9.0; model projection line (omega_model).

PROP ALERT

Cedric Coward Memphis Grizzlies

Over 1.5 three_pointers 58%

Coward projects as a starter-level wing with ~2 threes made per game on volume; model projection line (omega_model, small sample risk noted).

PROP ALERT

Jordan Poole New Orleans Pelicans

Over 18.5 points 57%

Model projection ~19 points at secondary usage if he clears day-to-day status; line is model-projected only (omega_model).

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail