New York City FC at Charlotte FC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
59%
Lean
SPREAD
Charlotte FC
0.0
model 10k sims project 58.8% home PK cover (43.6% win + 15.2% draw) vs 52.4% breakeven.
Ω Bottom Line
Charlotte PK +0.0 (MC 58.8% cover) backed by $7.6M extreme whale home steam, under 7.5 63% MC edge
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Charlotte FC
model 10k sims project 58.8% home PK cover (43.6% win + 15.2% draw) vs 52.4% breakeven.
MONEYLINE
Charlotte FC
Extreme institutional whale action ($7.57M volume, 61% confidence) overrides calibrated away edge.
TOTAL
under
Line: 7.5
model sims 63.1% under 7.5 (HIGH edge conf, projected 3.4-3.3); cool 52F weather adds under bias.
Game Analysis
Omega line away -141 but Bayesian posterior gives home 47.4% win prob vs 41.5% implied (+6% edge), MC home win 43%>away 41.4%. Extreme $7.3M whales on home (institutional) align despite 60% conf split. Under 7.5 hits 63% in 10k sims, mild weather no factor.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Kristijan Kahlina
Charlotte FC
Under 3.0 saves
60%
Model projects 6.2 shots faced x 85% save rate = 2.6 saves; low pace matchup.
PROP ALERT
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
Midfielder avg 0.4 SOT; defensive matchup limits chances.
PROP ALERT
Andrew Johnson
Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 goals
57%
Season avg ~0.3 GPG; tough NYC defense matchup.
PROP ALERT
Luca de la Torre
Charlotte FC
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Recent avg 0.8 but low usage projected in even matchup.
PROP ALERT
Nathan Byrne
Charlotte FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Defender low volume; model 0.3 projection.
PROP ALERT
Andrew Privett
Charlotte FC
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Occasional set piece threat; model 0.2.
PROP ALERT
Ashley Westwood
Charlotte FC
Over 55.5 passing_yards
62%
High volume passer (638 season); home game usage boost.
PROP ALERT
Kristijan Kahlina
Charlotte FC
Over 2.5 saves
59%
Backup? But leader; expect moderate shots.
PROP ALERT
Matthew Freese
New York City FC
Under 3.0 saves
60%
Model 6.0 shots faced x 82% save = 2.5; low scoring proj.
PROP ALERT
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
Over 0.5 goals
62%
8 goals/12 matches (0.67 gpg); high usage forward.
PROP ALERT
Maxi Morález
New York City FC
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Assists leader but SOT avg down vs Charlotte D.
PROP ALERT
Thiago Martins
New York City FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Defender low volume projection 0.3.
PROP ALERT
Maxi Morález
New York City FC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
59%
Creative mid; model 1.1 in road spot.
PROP ALERT
Tayvon Gray
New York City FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Wing back limited attacks projected.
PROP ALERT
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
Over 2.0 shots_on_target
61%
34 SOT leader; matchup favors 2.2 proj.