New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Knicks
1.5
model sims show 63.2% NYK cover +2.5 (equiv 68% +1.5) vs market -1.5
Ω Bottom Line
NYK +1.5 (MC 63% cover +2.5 equiv, extreme whales $2.6M) & under 214.5 (models 181 total vs line, +28 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Knicks
Line: 1.5
model sims show 63.2% NYK cover +2.5 (equiv 68% +1.5) vs market -1.5
MONEYLINE
New York Knicks
model 55.4% win prob + calibrated away edge +3.8pp vs de-vigged market
TOTAL
under
Line: 214.5
Omega 179 / NegBin 181.3 / MC mean 190.3 vs market 214.5 (our under prob 89%)
Game Analysis
MC sims crush Omega -2.5 with 67.1% Knicks cover (HIGH conf, -4.1 margin) backed by $1.9M extreme whale steam (90 wallets @75%). Bayesian fuses slight PHI ML edge (+4.5pp vs 38% Kalshi) but VERY_LOW agreement + whale contradiction caps at Lean. Over 179 hits 78.9% in sims (191.5 projected) but slashed conf on model's 47.5% Lean totals WR.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 28.0 points
64%
Lead scorer, usage boost with Embiid DTD; home matchup
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 6.5 assists
60%
Primary playmaker, Knicks injuries increase ballhandling
PROP ALERT
Andre Drummond
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 8.5 rebounds
62%
Starting center role with Embiid DTD; Knicks frontcourt depleted
PROP ALERT
Paul George
Philadelphia 76ers
Under 21.5 points
58%
Model pace low, Knicks defense ranks top-10 vs wings
PROP ALERT
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 13.5 points
57%
Spot-up role expands with injuries
PROP ALERT
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers
Under 30.5 points
55%
DTD status caps minutes, low pace projection
PROP ALERT
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks
Over 26.0 points
65%
Alpha dog usage spikes with Hart/Robinson/Anunoby DTD
PROP ALERT
Mikal Bridges
New York Knicks
Over 18.5 points
60%
Secondary scorer steps up in depleted rotation
PROP ALERT
Josh Hart
New York Knicks
Under 7.0 rebounds
56%
DTD + Drummond matchup suppresses boards