New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
-1.2
Net injury impact +6.9% home edge with Knicks multiple DTD (Hart/Robinson/Anunoby) vs Embiid solo
Ω Bottom Line
Philly +6.9% net injury edge anchors 53% home posterior vs sharp away contrarian signals (+1.2 EV spread)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers
Line: -1.2
Net injury impact +6.9% home edge with Knicks multiple DTD (Hart/Robinson/Anunoby) vs Embiid solo
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia 76ers
calibrated 53% home win probability fuses market prior; injuries favor Philly
TOTAL
over
Line: 118.5
Strong sharp signal 18.4% edge on over + +EV at retail books; low total undervalues scoring
Game Analysis
Knicks hit harder by injuries (-10.4% lambda adj vs Philly -3.4%), netting +6.9% home edge in low-data spot. Posterior 53% home ML matches efficient market despite away sharp/PM/whale signals (extreme $2.4M volume). Strong 18.4% sharp over edge on undervalued 118.5 total. Degraded data caps all at lean tier.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 27.5 points
62%
Team leader in scoring, high usage vs injured Knicks frontcourt (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Paul George
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 21.5 points
59%
Consistent scorer, favorable wing matchup vs Knicks depth issues
PROP ALERT
Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers
Under 11.0 rebounds
58%
DTD status reduces minutes/usage; Knicks rebounding help limited by injuries
PROP ALERT
Andre Drummond
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 8.5 rebounds
60%
Team rebound leader, feasts on Knicks missing Robinson
PROP ALERT
Tyrese Maxey
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 6.0 assists
57%
Playmaking PG, increased with Embiid DTD
PROP ALERT
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 2.0 three_pointers
56%
Volume shooter off bench, Knicks perimeter D weakened
PROP ALERT
Quentin Grimes
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 12.5 points
55%
Spot-up role expands with injuries
PROP ALERT
Kyle Lowry
Philadelphia 76ers
Over 4.5 assists
55%
Veteran facilitator in limited minutes
PROP ALERT
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks
Over 25.5 points
64%
Team scoring leader, high usage despite injuries
PROP ALERT
Mikal Bridges
New York Knicks
Over 19.5 points
59%
Two-way wing steps up with Anunoby/Hart out
PROP ALERT
Mitchell Robinson
New York Knicks
Under 7.5 rebounds
58%
DTD vs Drummond/Embiid; reduced role
PROP ALERT
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks
Over 6.5 assists
61%
Primary ball-handler, usage spikes with injuries
PROP ALERT
Josh Hart
New York Knicks
Under 7.5 rebounds
56%
DTD impacts hustle stats vs Philly boards