New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Dream
-3.5
OMEGA -5.0 vs market -3.5 plus 30-14 and 15-7 home vs 12-10 away and 91.8 vs 85.1 momentum
Ω Bottom Line
Dream home edge 30-14 vs 12-10 away with +1.5 spread gap and 68.7% vs 58.7% ML math
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Atlanta Dream
Line: -3.5
OMEGA -5.0 vs market -3.5 plus 30-14 and 15-7 home vs 12-10 away and 91.8 vs 85.1 momentum
MONEYLINE
Atlanta Dream
68.7% OMEGA win prob vs 58.7% breakeven clears -142 filter by 10pp with +17.08 EV
TOTAL
under
Line: 170.5
OMEGA 138.5 and decomposed 157.0 both well below 170.5 with 71.6-66.7 expected score
Game Analysis
Dream 30-14 with 15-7 home and 91.8 momentum vs Liberty 26-18 and 85.1. OMEGA -5.0 vs -3.5 and 68.7% win prob support Atlanta -3.5 and -142. OMEGA 138.5 and decomposed 157.0 vs 170.5 support under, but both teams missing starters so kept Lean.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Breanna Stewart
New York Liberty
Over 20.5 points
62%
High-usage star with Sabally out adding usage
PROP ALERT
Sabrina Ionescu
New York Liberty
Over 18.5 points
60%
Primary guard usage with backcourt minutes secure
PROP ALERT
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty
Over 8.5 rebounds
58%
Starting center rebound role vs shorthanded Dream frontcourt
PROP ALERT
Rhyne Howard
Atlanta Dream
Over 17.5 points
61%
Lead option with Gray out increasing shots
PROP ALERT
Angel Reese
Atlanta Dream
Over 12.5 rebounds
60%
Elite rebounder with extra frontcourt minutes with Jones out