New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces
Ω
OMEGA PICK
54%
Lean
SPREAD
New York Liberty
1.5
Aces missing 3 rotation players (-20.7% offensive impact) while Liberty fully healthy; calibrated spread posterior shows 54.1% cover probability vs market 50%
Ω Bottom Line
Over 172.5: OMEGA projects 179.0 total — 6.5-point gap vs market, +5.2 EV per $100 despite Aces' injury concerns
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Liberty
Line: 1.5
Aces missing 3 rotation players (-20.7% offensive impact) while Liberty fully healthy; calibrated spread posterior shows 54.1% cover probability vs market 50%
MONEYLINE
Las Vegas Aces
calibrated posterior 58.2% vs market 56.5% — +1.7pp edge; Aces home court and A'ja Wilson's star power outweigh injury losses in model
TOTAL
over
Line: 172.5
OMEGA independent total 179.0 vs market 172.5 — 6.5-point gap; calibrated total posterior shows 52.7% under but model projects higher scoring; pace and efficiency favor over
Game Analysis
Aces are banged up — Carter, Barker, and Evans all out, a -20.7% net hit. OMEGA line (-2.5) says the market spread (-1.5) is too tight, giving Liberty +1.5 a +4.1pp Bayesian edge. Whale money ($48K volume) leans Liberty too, though split at 55%. The total at 171.5 is trickier: OMEGA projects 179, but the Bayesian posterior (51.9% under) accounts for the injury suppression. Stewart over 20.5 points and Gray over 6.5 assists are the strongest props — both benefit from the injury cascade. Everything is LEAN-tier; no strong conviction plays here.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
A'ja Wilson
Las Vegas Aces
Over 25.5 points
63%
Wilson averages 25.7 PPG and with Carter/Barker out, usage increases; Liberty have no elite interior defender to slow her
PROP ALERT
Breanna Stewart
New York Liberty
Over 19.5 points
60%
Stewart averages 19.4 PPG and faces a depleted Aces defense missing key perimeter stoppers; full health and rest advantage
PROP ALERT
Sabrina Ionescu
New York Liberty
Over 5.5 assists
58%
Ionescu averages 5.8 APG and with Aces missing defensive guards, she should find open teammates more easily
PROP ALERT
Jonquel Jones
New York Liberty
Over 9.5 rebounds
60%
Jones averages 9.1 RPG and Aces are without Barker (forward) — rebounding advantage for Liberty
PROP ALERT
Chelsea Gray
Las Vegas Aces
Over 6.5 assists
57%
Gray averages 7.2 APG and with Carter out, she handles primary playmaking duties; Liberty defense is solid but Gray's vision is elite
PROP ALERT
Jackie Young
Las Vegas Aces
Over 14.5 points
58%
Young averages 15.3 PPG and with Carter/Barker out, she becomes the secondary scorer behind Wilson; Liberty's wing defense is solid but Young can create her own shot