New York Liberty at Portland Fire

WNBA May 13, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

70% Strong

SPREAD

Portland Fire

11.5

Omega independent line Portland -2.5 vs market +11.5 (9pt edge), expected score 90.8-88.1

Ω Bottom Line

Portland +11.5: omega home -2.5 vs mkt +11.5 (9pt edge), net injury adv +11.2% as NY overreacts to outs

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Portland Fire

Line: 11.5

70%

Omega independent line Portland -2.5 vs market +11.5 (9pt edge), expected score 90.8-88.1

MONEYLINE

Portland Fire

60%

calibrated +12.9pp edge on home ML (posterior 28.3% vs market 15.4%), omega win prob 44.4%

TOTAL

under

Line: 173.5

54%

Under posterior 53.5% (+3.5pp edge vs market 50%), OMEGA total but MC under 52.7%

Game Analysis

Liberty's 84.6% win prob implies -20 spread but line sits -13.5 for +EV cover despite -20.7% injury hit (Ionescu OUT). Net +13.8% home injury edge insufficient vs Stewart's 27ppg dominance. Moderate $17k whales on Liberty confirm; poor data caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Carla Leite Portland Fire

Over 18.0 points 62%

Team leader at 18.0ppg, increased usage with Samuelson OUT

PROP ALERT

Bridget Carleton Portland Fire

Over 4.0 rebounds 58%

Consistent 4rpg, rebounding opportunity vs injured NY frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Luisa Geiselsoder Portland Fire

Under 7.0 assists 57%

Model proj 6.2apg adjusted for DTD guards, low pace

PROP ALERT

Emily Engstler Portland Fire

Over 10.5 points 55%

Role player steps up with injuries, home usage boost

PROP ALERT

Megan Gustafson Portland Fire

Over 8.5 rebounds 60%

Strong rebounder vs depleted NY (Sabally/Allen out)

PROP ALERT

Haley Jones Portland Fire

Over 3.5 assists 56%

Secondary playmaker in injury cascade

PROP ALERT

Nyadiew Puoch Portland Fire

Over 1.0 blocks 55%

Rim protector opportunity vs Stewart-heavy NY

PROP ALERT

Serah Williams Portland Fire

Under 6.5 points 59%

Limited minutes behind Gustafson

PROP ALERT

Breanna Stewart New York Liberty

Over 27.0 points 65%

Star unaffected by other injuries, high usage 30%+

PROP ALERT

Breanna Stewart New York Liberty

Over 9.5 rebounds 63%

Double-double machine, rebound edge vs thin Portland front

PROP ALERT

Julie Vanloo New York Liberty

Over 6.5 assists 61%

Primary ballhandler with Ionescu out, usage spike

PROP ALERT

Jonquel Jones New York Liberty

Over 14.5 points 59%

Injury cascade boosts interior scoring vs Portland

PROP ALERT

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton New York Liberty

Under 11.0 points 57%

Reduced role behind Stewart/Jones

PROP ALERT

Han Xu New York Liberty

Over 1.5 blocks 56%

Center minutes up with frontcourt injuries

PROP ALERT

Marine Johannes New York Liberty

Under 1.5 three_pointers 55%

Low volume shooter, Portland D limits threes

PROP ALERT

Aubrey Griffin New York Liberty

Over 8.0 points 58%

Bench spark with multiple outs

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