New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB May 09, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Arizona Diamondbacks

2.2

calibrated 56.3% home cover vs 50% implied (+6.3pp); OMEGA spread vs market -2.2

Ω Bottom Line

Dbacks +2.2 (56% cover, +7.5EV) as whales crush home vs juiced Mets line, MC 20 total torches 8

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Arizona Diamondbacks

Line: 2.2

56%

calibrated 56.3% home cover vs 50% implied (+6.3pp); OMEGA spread vs market -2.2

MONEYLINE

Arizona Diamondbacks

55%

Home ML posterior 48.6% vs 46.3% implied (+2.3pp edge); breakeven exceeded

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

57%

Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 19.9 total, Omega 22.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior gives Dbacks +2.2 56.3% cover prob (+6.3pp edge) with net injury boost +2.8% and extreme $333k whale volume on home despite sharp 18.9% away on spread. Over 8.0 crushes at 65.2% posterior (omega 22.5 total, MC 20 runs) but cap conf due to totals 48.7% historical WR and no pitchers. Very low model agreement and late market move to Mets -2.2 from omega even reduce conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Ildemaro Vargas Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1.5 hits 58%

Model projection .360 BA leader vs weak Mets staff; high usage

PROP ALERT

Eduardo Rodriguez Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 5.5 strikeouts 57%

2.50 ERA + favorable matchup projection; Mets high K%

PROP ALERT

Michael Soroka Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 4.0 strikeouts 56%

Recent 42K pace; model sees volume vs Mets order

PROP ALERT

Ketel Marte Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Core usage + home splits; projected matchup edge

PROP ALERT

Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Leadoff speed projection vs Mets pen

PROP ALERT

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Cleanup projection in high-total spot

PROP ALERT

Eugenio Suarez Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

Regression from hot streak; tough Mets RHP

PROP ALERT

Juan Soto New York Mets

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Elite BA projection + 4HR recent; Dbacks weak SP

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power/speed combo vs Dbacks staff

PROP ALERT

Pete Alonso New York Mets

Over 0.5 home_runs 56%

HR leader projection in hitter-friendly total

PROP ALERT

Bo Bichette New York Mets

Over 1.0 hits 55%

16 hits recent; solid contact vs Dbacks

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 56%

.243 BA but model uptick home/away

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Middle order projection in overs spot

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Over 1.5 strikeouts 55%

1.69 ERA closer volume late

PROP ALERT

Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Table-setter projection vs Rodriguez

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