New York Mets at Colorado Rockies

MLB May 04, 2026 09:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

1.5

OMEGA spread + MC home cover +1.5 ~64% vs market implying 59%; Coors variance favors dog

Ω Bottom Line

Coors 20-run proj vs 10.5 total (+15.2pp over edge, +24 EV); whales steam home ML vs Mets juice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Colorado Rockies

Line: 1.5

62%

OMEGA spread + MC home cover +1.5 ~64% vs market implying 59%; Coors variance favors dog

MONEYLINE

Colorado Rockies

55%

calibrated 46.8% vs market 44.8% breakeven (+2pp edge); whales confirm home value

TOTAL

over

Line: 10.5

62%

Posterior over 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) with MC proj 19.7 total, Omega 22.5; Coors +35% over bias

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior 47.2% Rockies win vs 40% prior (+7.2pp edge) with ELO dominating scoring model (regression signal). Extreme institutional whales ($114k vol, 22 wallets) + MC 46.8% home win (high conf). Under 22.5 hits 75.7% in 10k sims despite potential Coors but model low total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model proj 1.1 hits at Coors (BA .321 adj +20% altitude); high-usage leadoff

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Season 11 HR but .220 last10; Coors boosts but projection 0.3 HR

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Over 4.5 strikeouts 57%

3.38 ERA leader proj 5.2 K; Mets K% top-10 vs RHP

PROP ALERT

Chase Dollander Colorado Rockies

Under 5.5 hits 56%

Coors but Mets contact hitters; model proj 5.1 H allowed

PROP ALERT

Bo Bichette New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Model proj 0.9 hits Coors boost; .243 BA but hot streak

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

4 HR season proj 0.4 at Coors; pull power but Rockies SP suppress

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Over 1.5 strikeouts 56%

1.69 ERA reliever high K/9; late innings Coors usage

PROP ALERT

Bo Bichette New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Coors park factor +25% TB; matchup favorable

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Limited RBI spots proj 0.4; cleanup but Coors chaos

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Under 0.5 saves 58%

Closer but high-scoring game reduces save prob; model 0.3

PROP ALERT

Troy Johnston Colorado Rockies

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Coors +30% TB for contact hitters; proj 1.8

PROP ALERT

Mickey Moniak Colorado Rockies

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

21 RBI leader proj 0.7 in high total spot

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