New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB April 14, 2026 02:10 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

0.0

Net injury impact +2.8% home edge (Mets -9.7% vs Dodgers -6.9%)

Ω Bottom Line

Dodgers +149 ML: extreme $661k whales +2.8% injury edge vs MC, 55% our prob = +21 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

58%

Net injury impact +2.8% home edge (Mets -9.7% vs Dodgers -6.9%)

MONEYLINE

Los Angeles Dodgers

62%

Extreme whale signal ($661k vol tier) + Kalshi 62% home vs Omega 40.2%

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses to 55.4% Dodgers win vs omega 40.2% implied, +15% edge confirmed by extreme $625k whale volume (institutional) and +2.8% net injury advantage (Mets -9.7% lambda). MC sims tight at 45.2% home cover but very low model agreement and no pitchers cap upside. Decomposed total 203 suggests scoring but totals WR 48.7% historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection .442 BA leader, high-scoring game boosts opportunities (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

4 HR leader, expected 12 runs boosts power output (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 5.5 strikeouts 57%

2.50 ERA but no matchup data, conservative in high-total game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 59%

22 K leader projection in inflated scoring env (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 2.0 total_bases 60%

High-usage star in 12-run projection game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 1.5 hits 56%

Consistent but Mets injuries don't cascade positively (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Teoscar Hernandez Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 rbis 55%

Run env favors RBI opps (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Will Smith Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Catcher usage up in high total (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 56%

4 HR/leader projection, but conservative line (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Pete Alonso New York Mets

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Power vs Dodgers staff, but Soto IL reduces lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Leadoff high usage in even matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Clay Holmes New York Mets

Under 4.5 strikeouts 55%

1.50 ERA but day-to-day, high total hurts K's (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brandon Nimmo New York Mets

Under 1.0 hits 57%

Dodgers injuries minor, neutral matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jeff McNeil New York Mets

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter thrives in scoring env (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Starling Marte New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Speed/contact vs tired Dodgers pen (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Over 0.5 rbis 58%

Power opps in 12-run projection (model-generated)

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