New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
TOTAL
OVER
8.0
calibrated shows 65.2% over probability vs 50% market implied, +15.2pp edge.
Ω Bottom Line
Mets-Phillies over 8.0: Bayesian model shows +15.2pp edge, 24.5% EV, but degraded data limits confidence to lean.
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.0
calibrated shows 65.2% over probability vs 50% market implied, +15.2pp edge.
Game Analysis
Sharp money is heavily on the Phillies with 19.3% spread divergence and $1M whale volume. However, data quality is degraded (57%) and Bayesian fusion shows no edge. The moneyline at -118 offers a slight edge if our 60% probability holds, but confidence is limited. Total is a pass.