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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants

MLB April 03, 2026 01:45 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Francisco Giants
0.0
OMEGA spread 0.0 vs market NYM -126 shows 126pt edge on even expected scores 12-12
Ω Bottom Line
Giants +104 ML crushes with 67% model prob vs 55.8% implied (+14.2 EV); OMEGA total edge 17pts on 24 projected runs

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
San Francisco Giants
64%
OMEGA spread 0.0 vs market NYM -126 shows 126pt edge on even expected scores 12-12
MONEYLINE
San Francisco Giants
67%
Breakeven 49.0% but OMEGA win prob 67.0% (Poisson 32.6% home + ELO adjustment) crushes +104 pricing
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.0
55%
OMEGA total 24.0 vs market 7.0 (17pt edge) on 12+12 run projection

Game Analysis

Omega model projects dead even 12-12 at Oracle Park with Mets slight ELO edge (+1.4 runs) but no market to exploit. Giants bullpen decimated (4 key IL arms out) favors Mets late; Webb/Peterson duel caps total under model 24.0. Props lean overs on K props for aces (Webb 7.0 avg, Peterson 6.2) in K-friendly spot.

Game Theory & Utilization

Omega model projects dead even 12-12 at Oracle Park with Mets slight ELO edge (+1.4 runs) but no market to exploit. Giants bullpen decimated (4 key IL arms out) favors Mets late; Webb/Peterson duel caps total under model 24.0. Props lean overs on K props for aces (Webb 7.0 avg, Peterson 6.2) in K-friendly spot.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Juan Soto New York Mets
Over 1.0 hits 60%
Model projection .346 BA leader vs Giants staff, usage high early season
PROP ALERT
Juan Soto New York Mets
Over 0.5 home_runs 58%
5 HR leader, favorable early season counting stats projection
PROP ALERT
Willy Adames San Francisco Giants
Over 0.5 hits 59%
Power profile projects multi-hit upside vs Mets staff
PROP ALERT
Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants
Under 1.5 hits 60%
.304 BA but model caps vs quality Mets arms early season
PROP ALERT
Jung Hoo Lee San Francisco Giants
Over 1.0 total_bases 57%
3 total bases leader, leadoff projection boosts counting stats
PROP ALERT
Logan Webb San Francisco Giants
Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%
12 K leader projection vs Mets lineup
PROP ALERT
Tobias Myers New York Mets
Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%
1.50 ERA projects K upside vs Giants
PROP ALERT
Juan Soto New York Mets
Over 1.5 total_bases 59%
Elite BA + power combo for multi-base game
PROP ALERT
Willy Adames San Francisco Giants
Under 0.5 home_runs 60%
1 HR but model sees regression vs Mets pitching
PROP ALERT
Jung Hoo Lee San Francisco Giants
Over 1.0 hits 57%
Contact hitter projects safely over vs matchup
PROP ALERT
Logan Webb San Francisco Giants
Under 0.5 hits 58%
Ace profile limits baserunners
PROP ALERT
Landen Roupp San Francisco Giants
Over 3.5 strikeouts 56%
0.00 ERA projects rookie K rate vs Mets
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