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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants

MLB April 04, 2026 02:15 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets
-1.5
Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYM -136 implies model undervalues Mets edge from Soto/Juan .333 BA leadership
Ω Bottom Line
Mets ML -136 (+11.2 EV): 64% model prob vs 57.6% implied w/ Soto carrying offense vs depleted Giants staff

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
New York Mets
Line: -1.5
65%
Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYM -136 implies model undervalues Mets edge from Soto/Juan .333 BA leadership
MONEYLINE
New York Mets
64%
64% model win prob vs 57.6% implied; exceeds breakeven by 6.4% with Soto leading Mets offense
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.5
58%
Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5; Poisson projects 12-12 runs despite Oracle Park suppression

Game Analysis

Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Mets -3.0 = massive 3pt CLV on Mets side with Soto .346 BA torching Giants staff. Peterson/Roupp both 0.00 ERA project under 24 total despite low expected 12-12 scores. Model 67% Mets ML crushes -124 pricing; strong tier ML 58.7% profitable historically.

Game Theory & Utilization

Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Mets -3.0 = massive 3pt CLV on Mets side with Soto .346 BA torching Giants staff. Peterson/Roupp both 0.00 ERA project under 24 total despite low expected 12-12 scores. Model 67% Mets ML crushes -124 pricing; strong tier ML 58.7% profitable historically.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Juan Soto New York Mets
Over 1.0 hits 60%
Team leader .333 BA; high-usage leadoff vs Giants SP
PROP ALERT
Juan Soto New York Mets
Over 0.5 home_runs 58%
5 team-leading HR; Oracle Park wind unknown but power profile fits
PROP ALERT
Freddy Peralta New York Mets
Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%
4.35 ERA starter; Giants K-prone vs RHP
PROP ALERT
Pete Alonso New York Mets
Over 1.5 total_bases 57%
Core Mets power bat; model projects high output in even matchup
PROP ALERT
Francisco Lindor New York Mets
Over 0.5 hits 59%
Consistent contact hitter; favorable Giants matchup
PROP ALERT
Logan Webb San Francisco Giants
Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%
Team leader 12 K in recent start; Mets chase vs groundballers
PROP ALERT
Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants
Under 1.5 hits 61%
.321 BA but Peralta limits contact hitters
PROP ALERT
Jung Hoo Lee San Francisco Giants
Over 0.5 hits 58%
4 team-leading recent hits; leadoff role usage
PROP ALERT
Robbie Ray San Francisco Giants
Over 5.0 strikeouts 59%
3.38 ERA; Mets high-K offense projection
PROP ALERT
Matt Chapman San Francisco Giants
Over 1.0 total_bases 57%
Power profile fits omega high-total projection
PROP ALERT
Brandon Nimmo New York Mets
Over 0.5 hits 56%
Table-setter vs Giants staff
PROP ALERT
Thairo Estrada San Francisco Giants
Over 0.5 hits 55%
Contact role player in high-pace spot
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