New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees
-1.5
+EV analysis flags 37.1% value on away spread at select books vs Market Consensus fair 47.3%
Ω Bottom Line
Model 22.5 total vs 9.0 market = +15.2pp over edge (65% posterior, +24.5 EV), Yankees juice kills ML/RL
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Yankees
Line: -1.5
+EV analysis flags 37.1% value on away spread at select books vs Market Consensus fair 47.3%
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.0
Posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega/MC avg 19.5-22.5 >> 9.0
Game Analysis
Omega/MC project 19.5-22.5 runs vs 9.0 market total for +15.2pp over posterior edge (65.2%), EV +24.5 despite totals calibration weakness. Yankees ML/RL juiced at -181 (64.4% breakeven) with bayesian 64.3% prob marginal after vig; sharp away spread divergence 18.1% confirms but whales extreme on BAL reduces. Equal injuries, no pitchers = degraded spot, lean total value.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
58%
Model projects 0.6 HR in high-total spot (22+ runs), season 16 HR pace
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 1.0 hits
60%
Projection 1.3 hits vs weak BAL staff, high scoring game boosts
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
30 total bases leader pace, model 2.3 in 22-run env
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 hits
55%
.306 BA leader, model 0.8 hits vs injured BAL arms
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 0.5 hits
59%
Projection 0.9 hits in hitter's park high total
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Under 0.5 home_runs
57%
9 HR pace, model 0.25 vs NYY staff
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 1.0 total_bases
56%
Model 1.5 TB in 11-run projection
PROP ALERT
Kyle Bradish
Baltimore Orioles
Over 5.5 strikeouts
58%
45 K pace, 4.83 ERA but model projects 6.0 vs NYY