New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

MLB May 12, 2026 10:35 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

1.5

OMEGA spread and model margin -0.4 vs market Yankees -1.5 creates 17pp edge on Orioles +1.5 cover

Ω Bottom Line

Orioles +1.5 +28 EV vs juiced Yankees runline (Omega 0.0 spread), over 8.5 +15pp Bayesian edge on 19.2 MC proj

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

Line: 1.5

64%

OMEGA spread and model margin -0.4 vs market Yankees -1.5 creates 17pp edge on Orioles +1.5 cover

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees

62%

calibrated 62.7% away win vs 58.2% devigged market prior (+4.5pp edge)

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

calibrated over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.2, Omega 22.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses to 61.9% Yankees win (+6.3pp edge) vs market -157, backed by MC 50% away win and Kalshi 58.5%, but extreme $1.2M whales (89%) on Orioles demand caution (-3 conf). Injuries equal at -8.7% both sides, no pitchers/weather. MC under 22.5 crushes at 74.9% despite totals model weakness.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 2.5 total_bases 58%

Judge leads team with 30 RBI/16 HR; favorable matchup vs Orioles staff (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Power profile in high-total projection game (19.2 MC expected)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 hits 59%

Consistent contact hitter vs no ace pitcher noted

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

Team RBI leader in projected hitter's park spot

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.312 recent avg; increased usage with injuries

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Hot bat in high-pace projection

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 4.5 strikeouts 60%

1.35 ERA suggests K upside vs Orioles lineup

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Model conservative in close matchup

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Key power bat (9 HR); home splits boost

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

HR leader in explosive total spot

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Consistent vs RHP projection

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

24 RBI pace; cleanup potential

PROP ALERT

Kyle Bradish Baltimore Orioles

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

45 K leader despite 4.83 ERA; Yankees K-prone

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.257 avg with on-base skills

PROP ALERT

Chris Bassitt Baltimore Orioles

Over 4.0 strikeouts 58%

3 wins; solid K/9 in projection

PROP ALERT

Kyle Bradish Baltimore Orioles

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Injury adjustments lower volume

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