New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
0.5
Whale consensus (extreme volume) + calibrated 42.5% home cover vs model implied 46.2%; net injury edge +3.2% to home.
Ω Bottom Line
Red Sox +215 ML (+34 EV: our 42.5% vs 31.7% implied) backed by extreme $124k whales (93%) + net injury edge
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
Line: 0.5
Whale consensus (extreme volume) + calibrated 42.5% home cover vs model implied 46.2%; net injury edge +3.2% to home.
MONEYLINE
Boston Red Sox
Our 42.5% home win prob (calibrated + model 42%) vs model implied 31.7%; exceeds breakeven by 10.8%.
TOTAL
under
Line: 24.0
model sim 71.6% under 24.0 vs implied 50%; projected 20.9 total (10.2-10.7).
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior fuses to 42.6% BOS win prob vs omega_model's 31.7% implied (+10.9% edge on +215 dog) with MC at 41.1% confirming value. Extreme $124k whale volume (93% conf, institutional tier) + net +3.2% BOS injury edge overrides VERY_LOW model agreement. MC 71.3% under 24.0 total offers standalone value despite totals calibration weakness.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 2.5 total_bases
58%
Judge season leader (8 HR); high-usage vs weak BOS arms; model projection 2.8.
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
55%
Power profile + Fenway park; projection 0.6 HR.
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 1.0 hits
57%
.339 BA leader; favorable matchup projection 1.2 hits.
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Over 5.5 strikeouts
55%
1.95 ERA; projection 6.1 K vs BOS.
PROP ALERT
Gerrit Cole
New York Yankees
Under 6.5 strikeouts
55%
IL but if active, injury impact lowers; projection 5.8.
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.0 hits
58%
.311 BA leader; projection 1.1 hits vs NYY.
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Under 0.5 home_runs
55%
3 HR; projection 0.2 vs NYY arms.