New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

MLB April 23, 2026 10:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

New York Yankees

-1.5

Sharp spread divergence 18.5% + +43.7% EV vs Market Consensus fair (away cover 44.9%)

Ω Bottom Line

NYY RL sharp 18.5% divergence +43.7% EV vs Pinnacle despite extreme BOS whales, model proj 21 total crushes 8.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Yankees

Line: -1.5

62%

Sharp spread divergence 18.5% + +43.7% EV vs Market Consensus fair (away cover 44.9%)

Game Analysis

Omega/MC project 20.9 runs (10.2-10.7 score) vs 8.5 total for +15.5 edge, over crushes despite totals weak history. Sharps on NYY -1.5 w/ 18.5% div +43% EV vs Pinnacle, Bayesian fuses to 62.5% away win edge over 60.9% implied. Extreme whales BOS ML ($1.1M vol) contradict but default sharp/Pinnacle; injuries hurt NYY more (-10%) but model holds.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 60%

Season HR leader with 9; hot .314 BA context boosts power projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.314 BA leader; favorable matchup projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

High-usage star vs injured BOS staff (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

18 RBI leader; lineup protection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 57%

1.95 ERA ace projection vs BOS injuries (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 60%

Consistent contact in high-pace projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Regression from hot streak (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 4.5 strikeouts 56%

BOS contact hitters (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.281 BA leader; vs NYY injuries (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Trevor Story Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

17 RBI leader projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Garrett Crochet Boston Red Sox

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

30 K leader; NYY weak vs LHP? (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

4 HR modest pace (model-generated)

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