New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
1.5
calibrated shows Tigers +1.5 cover at 53.9%, edge +3.9pp vs market 50%
Ω Bottom Line
Over 8.5 shows +15.2pp Bayesian edge and Tigers +1.5 offers +3.9pp, but degraded data demands caution — trust the whale volume on Yankees ML? No, model says negative EV.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 1.5
calibrated shows Tigers +1.5 cover at 53.9%, edge +3.9pp vs market 50%
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
calibrated projects 65.2% over 8.5, edge +15.2pp vs market — driven by model consensus despite data gaps
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion gives the Yankees a 57.5% win probability vs a 53.5% market prior — a +4.0pp edge. Whale signals confirm with $600K in volume on New York from 25 profitable wallets (EXTREME tier). The Omega total of 22.5 is suspiciously high (likely a data artifact), but the under at that number has 73.5% Monte Carlo probability. Without starting pitcher data, confidence is capped at 65 for the moneyline and 60 for the spread. The Yankees' moneyline at model-implied -135 offers the clearest edge in a degraded data environment.