New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
68%
Strong
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
2.2
Sharp money divergence (19.4%) and Market Consensus fair value (home 58.2%, away 41.8%) support Tigers covering +2.2 at +160; +EV of +50% vs sharp fair value.
Ω Bottom Line
Tigers +2.2 at +160 (19.4% sharp divergence + $683K whale volume = 8.15 EV per $100) — Detroit is the clear side with a strong contrarion edge.
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Detroit Tigers
Sharp money (19.4% spread divergence) and whale consensus ($683K volume) both favor Tigers; Positive EV at +113 odds vs fair value of ~+106.
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers
Line: 2.2
Sharp money divergence (19.4%) and Market Consensus fair value (home 58.2%, away 41.8%) support Tigers covering +2.2 at +160; +EV of +50% vs sharp fair value.
TOTAL
under
Line: 8.5
Omega model's 22.5 total is clearly inflated due to missing pitcher data and lambda projection errors. Market at 8.5 reflects realistic scoring. calibrated total posterior at 65.2% over is likely artifact of model failure — fade the over.
Game Analysis
This game is a data minefield — the Omega Poisson model projects a total of 22.5 with an expected score of 11.2-11.2, while the market consensus total is 8.0. That 14.5-run gap screams either a data error or the market total is for a different bet type (e.g., alternate total). Sharp money is heavily on the away side (Yankees) across both ML and spread, with whales throwing $613K on the away side — institutional signal. But without Aaron Judge (10-Day IL) and with no probable starter data, the Yankees' lineup is thin. The strongest play appears to be the over 8.0 — if the line is real, the Bayesian posterior gives the over 65.2% probability, yielding +7.8% EV. Spread pick is a LEAN on the Tigers at +2.0, backed by sharp divergence (12.2%) but degraded by CLV timing and whale divergence.