New York Yankees at Houston Astros
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees
-1.5
+40.5% EV on away spread vs Market Consensus fair value (43.9% cover prob)
Ω Bottom Line
Sharp 17.6% spread edge to Yankees -1.5 (+40.5% EV) vs whale home action, models project 54-63% away win vs 59% implied
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Yankees
Line: -1.5
+40.5% EV on away spread vs Market Consensus fair value (43.9% cover prob)
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees
calibrated 62.8% away win (model 53.7%) vs implied 58.8%, moderate model agreement
TOTAL
over
Line: 9.5
model projected 21.4 total (10.2-11.2) vs market 9.5, OMEGA total
Game Analysis
Market Yankees -2.2 lags OMEGA pick'em + MC -0.3 margin (std 4.8), fair value 53.2% Astros cover vs 52.4% breakeven for +5% edge. Extreme $372K whale volume (46 wallets, 84% home) + PM 47.5% home overrides sharp away steam; net injury +2.3% home. Model totals 24.0/MC 20.9 demolish 9.0 line despite historical total struggles.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
55%
Season HR leader with 9, model projection favors power output vs weak Astros staff
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
High-usage slugger, projected matchup boost
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Over 4.5 strikeouts
55%
1.77 ERA, model projects K upside vs Astros
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 rbis
57%
Power bat drives in runs, lineup protection
PROP ALERT
Yordan Alvarez
Houston Astros
Over 1.5 total_bases
58%
Triple crown leader pace, matchup edge
PROP ALERT
Mike Burrows
Houston Astros
Under 5.5 strikeouts
56%
33 K leader but high ERA caps innings