New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB May 08, 2026 11:40 PM ET FINAL 0 - 6

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

New York Yankees

-1.5

+56.1% EV on Yankees -1.5 per +EV analysis vs Market Consensus fair value (41.1% cover); 20.4% sharp divergence

Ω Bottom Line

Yankees ML +2.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme whales; Over 7.5 w/ MC 17.7 total (+15pp, 65% posterior)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Yankees

Line: -1.5

60%

+56.1% EV on Yankees -1.5 per +EV analysis vs Market Consensus fair value (41.1% cover); 20.4% sharp divergence

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees

56%

+2.2pp calibrated edge (53.2%) vs devigged market prior; model 54% away win

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

62%

+15.2pp calibrated edge on over (65.2% posterior); MC proj 17.7 total, omega 22.5

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior gives Brewers +1.8pp ML edge vs Kalshi (46.3% win prob) despite omega/MC favoring Yankees; extreme whales on Yankees contradict (+$372k vol) capping conf at lean. MC shows strong under 71.4% at 22.5 (proj 9.7-10.3) with high edge conf, but totals calibration weak. Equal injuries (-9% both), no pitchers/weather, very low model agreement limits to marginal plays.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

15 season HR, favorable matchup vs Misiorowski (59K but high contact allowed); temp 61F neutral

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 2.5 total_bases 60%

29 RBI leader, high-usage vs avg Brewers SP; pace favors power

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 59%

2.39 ERA, Brewers K-prone (model projects 6.2); full data quality

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 55%

.343 BA leader, day-to-day but expected; weak SP matchup

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

29 RBI, cleanup spot usage boost vs regression-risk Brewers pen

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Under 6.5 strikeouts 56%

Brewers contact hitters (Turang .305); Misiorowski matchup limits innings?

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

Hot .343 BA, injury cascade if Stanton out increases PA

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 1.5 hits 55%

Misiorowski 59K, low BA vs LHP? Conservative projection

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Under 1.5 hits 57%

Fried elite 2.39 ERA suppresses contact; Yelich IL cascade

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Over 0.5 hits 58%

.305 BA leader, leadoff vs Fried but high contact profile

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

59 season K, Yankees K-prone (Judge whiff rate); 2.84 ERA supports

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

Only 5 HR, Fried dominates power hitters; cool 61F under bias

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

23 RBI leader, middle order vs Yankees pen regression

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.5 total_bases 59%

Contact hitter .305 in high-total spot (model 17+ runs)

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Under 6.5 strikeouts 55%

Yankees low-K lineup (Rice .343 BA), limited innings projected

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Power over contact vs Fried; Mitchell DTD reduces opportunities

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