New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
54%
Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
1.5
calibrated 53.9% Brewers +1.5 cover vs market 50%; OMEGA spread (0.0) vs market -1.5 away
Ω Bottom Line
Omega 22.5 total vs 7.5 market (+15pp over edge, 24.5 EV); Brewers +1.5 on model pick'em spread
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers
Line: 1.5
calibrated 53.9% Brewers +1.5 cover vs market 50%; OMEGA spread (0.0) vs market -1.5 away
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.5
calibrated +15.2pp over edge (65.2% posterior); Omega 22.5 total / MC ~20.4 vs market 7.5
Game Analysis
Pinnacle +EV screams value on Brewers +1.5 (59.8% fair cover, +15.6 EV/100) amid equal injuries and no pitchers. Whales dump $439k extreme volume on Yankees ML but -132 juice kills EV (53% our prob vs 57% breakeven). Totals slight over fair (52.7%) but 48.7% historical WR + no pace/weather = pass.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
58%
Season HR leader (15); model projects 0.65 in high-total spot
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
High-usage slugger in projected 22-run game
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 hits
55%
Hot .343 BA; model line vs weak Brewers staff
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Over 4.5 strikeouts
59%
1.52 ERA leader; favorable matchup projection
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Over 1.0 total_bases
55%
Recent form boost in high-scoring model
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Under 5.5 strikeouts
55%
Model regresses recent K/9 in neutral spot
PROP ALERT
William Contreras
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 0.5 rbis
58%
23 RBI leader; Yelich IL boosts usage
PROP ALERT
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 5.5 strikeouts
59%
59K leader (2.84 ERA); high total favors Ks
PROP ALERT
Brice Turang
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 1.0 total_bases
56%
Contact hitter in favorable scoring env
PROP ALERT
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 6.5 strikeouts
55%
Regime regression on recent form