New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers

MLB May 10, 2026 06:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Milwaukee Brewers

2.2

calibrated 56.3% Brewers cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp); Omega line even spread 0.0 vs market -2.2

Ω Bottom Line

Brewers +2.2 (56% posterior +7.5 EV) as Omega even vs market overvalue; over 7.5 +24 EV total mismatch

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Milwaukee Brewers

Line: 2.2

56%

calibrated 56.3% Brewers cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp); Omega line even spread 0.0 vs market -2.2

TOTAL

over

Line: 7.5

60%

Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total and MC ~20.4 vs market 7.5

Game Analysis

Yankees spread draws sharp 19.2% divergence and extreme $301k whale volume (41 wallets, 78% conviction) despite Pinnacle shading Brewers cover at 59.8% fair prob. Equal injury hits (-9% both); no pitchers or weather to sway total. Data gaps cap conviction but signals converge on away spread.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projection 0.6 HR/game on season pace (15 HR); high-usage vs Brewers staff (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Projection 1.2 hits/game; favorable matchup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 55%

.343 BA pace projects 0.8 hits (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 56%

1.52 ERA pace suggests 6.2 K/9 projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 1.5 rbis 55%

29 RBI pace but 0.9/game projection vs strong Brewers arms (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Hot .343 BA projects 1.8 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Conservative projection 5.0 K vs Brewers lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 2.0 total_bases 59%

Power projection 2.3 TB/game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.0 hits 57%

.305 BA pace projects 1.1 hits (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Under 0.5 home_runs 56%

5 HR pace 0.3/game projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Over 1.0 rbis 58%

23 RBI pace 1.2/game (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Over 6.0 strikeouts 57%

59 K pace 6.5 K/start projection (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

William Contreras Milwaukee Brewers

Under 1.0 hits 55%

Projection 0.9 hits vs Yankees staff (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Brice Turang Milwaukee Brewers

Under 1.5 total_bases 56%

Contact hitter projects 1.3 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Jacob Misiorowski Milwaukee Brewers

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

2.84 ERA but Yankees lineup caps at 5.8 K (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Gary Sanchez Milwaukee Brewers

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Power projection 0.7 RBI (model-generated)

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