New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants OMEGA Picks — March 28, 2026

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

San Francisco Giants

67%

Yankees missing Gerrit Cole + Carlos Rodon + Clarke Schmidt forces bullpen game vs Giants' Logan Webb

SPREAD

San Francisco Giants

Line: +1.5

64%

Model expected score Giants 4.1 - Yankees 3.6 creates 0.5 run cushion for Giants +1.5 cover

TOTAL

Under 7.5

Line: 7.5

70%

Oracle Park under bias (+15% unders) + model total 7.7 but wind/temp neutral projects 7.2 combined

Game Analysis

Giants get model edge at home Oracle (proj 3.9-3.6 win) with pitching intact vs Yankees decimated by Cole/Rodon/Volpe/Schmidt outs. Total crushes under 7 at 6.8 model proj thanks to park suppression + March cool. H2H model 0-1 two days ago but N=1 noise; Webb props shine vs depleted Yanks lineup.

Game Theory & Utilization

Giants get model edge at home Oracle (proj 3.9-3.6 win) with pitching intact vs Yankees decimated by Cole/Rodon/Volpe/Schmidt outs. Total crushes under 7 at 6.8 model proj thanks to park suppression + March cool. H2H model 0-1 two days ago but N=1 noise; Webb props shine vs depleted Yanks lineup.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Logan Webb San Francisco Giants

Over 6.5 strikeouts 65%

Webb Spring avg 7 K/9 + Yankees K-rate 23.8% vs RHP, model proj 6.8 in 6.2 IP

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 strikeouts 62%

Judge 28.5% K-rate vs Webb pitch mix + Oracle suppresses power (park HR factor 0.92)

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Under 0.5 hits 60%

Stanton .212 BA vs Webb-type sinker/slider + cold start (0 hits early)

PROP ALERT

Luis Arraez San Francisco Giants

Over 1.5 hits 64%

.333 early BA + contact profile thrives vs Yankees depleted rotation

PROP ALERT

Austin Wells New York Yankees

Under 0.5 hits 59%

.667 small sample but faces Giants pen + road splits .231 BA

PROP ALERT

Willy Adames San Francisco Giants

Under 1.5 strikeouts 61%

Adames 19% K-rate early + favorable matchup vs Yankees bullpen game