New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

MLB April 01, 2026 08:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees

Omega win prob 36.9% vs market-implied 49.5% for NYY (+17% edge on underdog)

Ω Bottom Line

Under 7.5 +12.2 EV (omega 24.0 total vs market 7.5); NYY ML +4.8 EV on 17% prob edge despite injuries

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

New York Yankees

62%

Omega win prob 36.9% vs market-implied 49.5% for NYY (+17% edge on underdog)

TOTAL

Seattle Mariners / New York Yankees Under 7.5

Line: 7.5

72%

Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 (16.5pt edge); Poisson projects 12-12 but market totals compressed early season

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson blasts 12-12 expected (total 24) vs market's puny 7—bullpen bloodbath w/Cole/Rodon/Miller all IL. NYY +100 undervalued at 36.9% prob (ELO close matchup). Recent 0-2 vs this H2H but +12.4 EV over 7 screams value.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 0.5 home_runs 60%

Early season .500 BA but HR regression vs Seattle's deep OF; omega model proj 0.3 HR

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Model proj 0.8 hits on .500 BA start; favorable vs RHP in Seattle

PROP ALERT

Luis Castillo Seattle Mariners

Over 5.5 strikeouts 62%

0.00 ERA leader proj 6.8 K vs Yankees depleted lineup (Volpe IL)

PROP ALERT

Luke Raley Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Team leader in hits (3); model proj 0.7 vs Yankees pen

PROP ALERT

George Kirby Seattle Mariners

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Recent form 1 start but projects 5.3 K with Yankees injuries

PROP ALERT

Logan Gilbert Seattle Mariners

Under 5.5 strikeouts 56%

13 team stat but model proj 4.9 K vs Yankees power

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 1.5 hits 60%

2 team HR but BA regression in pitcher-friendly Seattle

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

4 team HR but early sample; proj 0.4 vs Mariners staff

PROP ALERT

Luke Raley Seattle Mariners

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

3 team HR leader but projects under vs Yankees arms

PROP ALERT

Brendan Donovan Seattle Mariners

Over 0.5 hits 57%

.429 BA leader proj 0.9 hits in early role

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 3.5 strikeouts 55%

0.00 ERA proj 4.2 K vs Mariners contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Luis Castillo Seattle Mariners

Under 4.5 hits 61%

0.00 ERA allows 3.8 H; Yankees injuries reduce threat

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