Orlando City SC at Inter Miami CF

MLS May 02, 2026 11:15 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Orlando City SC

1.5

OMEGA spread vs market MIA -1.5 (1.5pt edge); model margin +0.2pts projects 69% cover rate for +1.5

Ω Bottom Line

Model 3.8-3.8 goals/even spread vs MIA -1.5/3.5 juice, +13.7pp over 3.5 EV and Orlando +1.5 24 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Orlando City SC

Line: 1.5

62%

OMEGA spread vs market MIA -1.5 (1.5pt edge); model margin +0.2pts projects 69% cover rate for +1.5

MONEYLINE

Orlando City SC

60%

Away ML posterior 32.6% vs 14.3% implied (+18.3pp raw edge); omega ML away -125 vs market +600

TOTAL

over

Line: 3.5

61%

Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge); OMEGA total and model 6.7 vs market 3.5

Game Analysis

Omega Poisson/ELO projects 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.5) and even spread 0.0 vs MIA -1.5/-330 juice, creating +9.3pp Bayesian edge to Orlando ML and +13.7pp to over 3.5. MC sims 3.5-3.2 (+0.2 margin, HIGH edge conf) confirm close game, Orlando +1.5 covers 69%. Extreme whales ($146k home) contradict but quant trumps; mild weather no impact.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Martín Ojeda Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Season 4G/10M, matchup vs Miami def limits finishers; model proj 0.3

PROP ALERT

Iván Angulo Orlando City SC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

High usage winger, avg 1.1 SOT; Miami concedes shots centrally

PROP ALERT

Braian Ojeda Orlando City SC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Midfield creator, consistent SOT volume in high pace model game

PROP ALERT

Maxime Crépeau Orlando City SC

Over 3.0 saves 64%

Model total 7.5 projects high SOG; Miami attacks force work

PROP ALERT

Robin Jansson Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

CB low volume, focus defending Messi threats

PROP ALERT

Adrián Marín Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Defender minimal attacking; model low usage

PROP ALERT

Wilder Cartagena Orlando City SC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

DM low shot threat in road spot

PROP ALERT

Eduard Atuesta Orlando City SC

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Mid usage boost in even matchup

PROP ALERT

Dayne St. Clair Inter Miami CF

Over 2.5 saves 63%

Orlando attacks vs home GK; high total proj 7.5

PROP ALERT

Rodrigo De Paul Inter Miami CF

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Key mid, consistent SOT in home games

PROP ALERT

Gonzalo Luján Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 goals 61%

Secondary fwd, low conversion vs Orlando def

PROP ALERT

Micael Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Def low volume; model projects minimal

PROP ALERT

Sergio Reguilón Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

LB defensive focus

PROP ALERT

Maximiliano Falcón Inter Miami CF

Over 0.0 shots_on_target 56%

Occasional set piece threat

PROP ALERT

Ian Fray Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 62%

CB no attacking role

PROP ALERT

Noah Allen Inter Miami CF

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Young def low shots

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail