Osasuna at Alavés
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Osasuna
0.5
Osasuna superior 10-7-12 road record vs Alavés dismal 8-7-14 home mark creates +3pt model discrepancy
Ω Bottom Line
Osasuna +180 ML +4.6 EV: 10-7-12 road form >> Alavés 8-7-14 home garbage despite -0.5 pricing
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Osasuna
Line: 0.5
Osasuna superior 10-7-12 road record vs Alavés dismal 8-7-14 home mark creates +3pt model discrepancy
MONEYLINE
Osasuna
Model prob 58% >> 35.7% breakeven on +180; Alavés home record undervalues Osasuna's better overall form
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game + both mid-table defenses project sub-2.5 xG matchup
Game Analysis
Alavés home edge with Boyé volume vs Osasuna's poor away xG (1.1/game); model Poisson gives 46% home win, 2.1 total but vig kills ML EV. Budimir over 0.5 goals has standalone edge (0.50 season G/M). Zero situational flags or injuries limit conviction; tier data shows ML profitable but model 0-2 vs Alavés.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 0.5 goals
60%
League-leading 14 goals in 28 matches vs Alavés weak home defense
PROP ALERT
Rubén García
Osasuna
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
5 assists in 26 games, high-volume creator vs Alavés
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
62%
Primary finisher, consistent SOT volume