Osasuna at Athletic Club

La Liga April 21, 2026 05:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

59% Lean

SPREAD

Athletic Club

-0.5

San Mames home advantage in LaLiga where Athletic covers 55% as -0.5 or shorter favorites

Ω Bottom Line

Athletic -0.5: San Mames home edge +1.5% model prob vs market, EV +4.2%

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Athletic Club

Line: -0.5

59%

San Mames home advantage in LaLiga where Athletic covers 55% as -0.5 or shorter favorites

MONEYLINE

Athletic Club

56%

Mild favorite pricing undervalues Athletic's home win rate vs mid-table Osasuna

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

54%

Mist at 54F low wind favors under in LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior matches market at 52.4% home win but we adjust to 54% on LaLiga home edge (11-5-15 home implied strength). EV +3.1 on Athletic ML -110 beats vig; spread -120 kills value. Minor away whale ($4k) noted but low conviction. Thundery Bilbao weather (61F/82% hum) leans total under but totals WR 48.7% caps confidence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Gorka Guruzeta Athletic Club

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection 0.3 goals; 7G in 28 matches vs solid Osasuna backline

PROP ALERT

Gorka Guruzeta Athletic Club

Over 2.0 shots_on_target 58%

Model proj 2.3; 63 SOT/28 games consistent volume

PROP ALERT

Yuri Berchiche Athletic Club

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model proj 0.4; defender low SOT avg

PROP ALERT

Unai Simón Athletic Club

Over 2.5 saves 59%

Model proj 3.0; Osasuna attack projects 10-11 SOG

PROP ALERT

Iñaki Williams Athletic Club

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model proj 0.3; secondary scorer behind Guruzeta

PROP ALERT

Nico Williams Athletic Club

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model proj 1.7; high usage winger

PROP ALERT

Oihan Sancet Athletic Club

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model proj 0.2; mid volume in tight matchup

PROP ALERT

Dani Vivian Athletic Club

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model proj 0.3; CB minimal attacks

PROP ALERT

Ante Budimir Osasuna

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model proj 0.4; Athletic defense limits top Osasuna scorer

PROP ALERT

Ante Budimir Osasuna

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model proj 2.2; 80 SOT/30 but road vs strong GK

PROP ALERT

Rubén García Osasuna

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

Model proj 1.2; secondary creator contained

PROP ALERT

Sergio Herrera Osasuna

Under 3.0 saves 59%

Model proj 2.6; Athletic low SOG expected in mist

PROP ALERT

Alejandro Catena Osasuna

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model proj 0.3; CB no attacking threat

PROP ALERT

Aimar Oroz Osasuna

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Model proj 1.1; mid usage boost on road

PROP ALERT

Kike García Osasuna

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model proj 0.2; backup to Budimir

PROP ALERT

Jon Moncayola Osasuna

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model proj 0.5; wing low volume

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